It's been a warm and windy end to the week as temperatures rose into the lower to mid-80s across Mid-Missouri on Friday, and we're in for another mild day to kick off the weekend tomorrow.
Saturday starts off warm with lows falling into the mid-60s overnight. Strong winds ahead of a cold front will pick up to 30-40 mph across most of the area during the day, with isolated gusts up to 45 mph for areas along Highway 65 where there is a Wind Advisory going into effect Saturday morning through 7:00 p.m.
South winds will send plenty of moisture through the region, bringing warm temperatures in the low 80s and higher dew points. We'll need that moisture to feed showers and storms overnight, but one ingredient we'll be lacking for widespread severe storms will be higher instability over Mid-Missouri.
The most favorable environment for severe weather will lie to our west where the cold front will be during the day on Saturday across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. We'll have wind shear to work with, but with limited instability or fuel for storms to become severe, the risk for strong storms will decrease as the front gets closer to us tomorrow night. That said, there could be some heavy downpours and isolated strong wind gusts in some of the storms; up to 50 mph. The zone we'll be watching after 10:00 p.m. will be locations along the Highway 65 corridor; from Brunswick to Warsaw. Points east of there will likely not see storms become severe, but steady rain and embedded rumbles of thunder are likely overnight.
Rain continues into early Sunday morning, and hangs around along and ahead of the slowly southeastward advancing front. Areas north of the front will likely get to near 70 degrees Sunday with drier conditions, but ahead of the front we can expect renewed showers and storms into Sunday afternoon and evening, especially south of Highway 54. Those locations will remain in the upper 60s for highs, and the severe risk will be low, with isolated strong wind gusts possible along I-44 Sunday afternoon. Rain amounts between Saturday night and Sunday will be in the 0.5" to 1" range.
Rain clears out Sunday night, leaving us with quiet weather and temperatures in the low 60s to start off next week.