Temperatures have been gradually increasing the last few days thanks to a shift in our winds aloft to the southwest. This weekend will be no exception as dew points continue to rise ahead of a deep low-pressure system to our northwest on Friday.
Friday starts off muggy and mild and there will be an afternoon chance of a few storms, but we'll keep our eyes peeled for a front to move in from the northwest Friday night.
A line of showers and storms are expected to develop out ahead of the line Friday evening, and move into Mid-Missouri by late evening. This will likely be our best chance of measurable rain over the 7-day period. Storms look to be stronger across most of Iowa and far northwest Missouri where they can be forced up by the boundary and a better environment conducive to severe weather. A broken line of thunderstorms can be expected to move in from the northwest after about 10 p.m. Friday and push southeast overnight into Saturday morning.
Severe weather is not expected for the majority of Mid-Missouri, but there could be some isolated strong wind gusts up to 40-50 mph along with heavy downpours. Rain amounts will generally be under 1".
The front will end up cutting across the area on Saturday night, bringing a chance for a few storms and cooler dew points for the northern half of the state into Sunday. That will bring down the heat index a bit briefly before a dome of high pressure forces the jet stream north of us Sunday into next week. We'll really start to feel the heat Monday and Tuesday with heat indices approaching 100 degrees.
Stay hydrated the next few days as heat indices get into the upper 90s Friday and Saturday. We get a slight cool down on Sunday as the humidity will be lower, but as mentioned above it doesn't last for long.