Showers and storms have moved into Mid-Missouri this afternoon, bringing very heavy rain and strong winds in a few of the storms into this evening. Showers and storms continue overnight into Friday morning, especially south of I-70.
A cold front has started to move south into Mid-Missouri this afternoon. As it does, it will run into plenty of hot, humid conditions to feed some storms.
Plenty of moisture is working into Mid-Missouri, as evidenced by the higher dew points today, and this storm system will have more energy to work with into Thursday as a more robust low-level jet stream pushes in from the southwest. Ingredients for a lower-end severe weather set-up are starting to take shape for much of the state this afternoon and evening.
There will be plenty of energy to keep storms going, but a lack of wind shear until evening, keeping storms less organized during the day. By evening, that low-level jet kicks in to enhance ongoing storms. That's where we'd find a low-end damaging wind threat if storms can develop into a line.
Heavy rain will also be likely with high water content in the atmosphere, with rain totals between 1-2". Localized flooding may be an issue in already saturated areas.
The front is expected to settle across the I-70 corridor on Friday, bringing more isolated storms by the afternoon. However, the ingredients for severe weather will be more lacking, so general showers and thunderstorms are anticipated.
Model guidance has been trending toward the front pushing across southern Missouri by the weekend. This would keep much of Mid-Missouri dry on Saturday and Sunday.