Insider Blog: Threat for heavy rain and strong winds continues tonight
Showers and storms have moved into Mid-Missouri this afternoon, bringing very heavy rain and strong winds in a few of the storms into this evening. Showers and storms continue overnight into Friday morning, especially south of I-70.
SETUP
A cold front has started to move south into Mid-Missouri this afternoon. As it does, it will run into plenty of hot, humid conditions to feed some storms.
![](https://abc17news.b-cdn.net/abc17news.com/2021/07/WsfH0OQL-sfc.jpg)
Plenty of moisture is working into Mid-Missouri, as evidenced by the higher dew points today, and this storm system will have more energy to work with into Thursday as a more robust low-level jet stream pushes in from the southwest. Ingredients for a lower-end severe weather set-up are starting to take shape for much of the state this afternoon and evening.
![](https://abc17news.b-cdn.net/abc17news.com/2021/07/CAPE.jpg)
INGREDIENTS
There will be plenty of energy to keep storms going, but a lack of wind shear until evening, keeping storms less organized during the day. By evening, that low-level jet kicks in to enhance ongoing storms. That's where we'd find a low-end damaging wind threat if storms can develop into a line.
![](https://abc17news.b-cdn.net/abc17news.com/2021/07/PkfOuB9m-rain-tracker.jpg)
Heavy rain will also be likely with high water content in the atmosphere, with rain totals between 1-2". Localized flooding may be an issue in already saturated areas.
![](https://abc17news.b-cdn.net/abc17news.com/2021/07/bmJc3Uwh-severe-threats.jpg)
The front is expected to settle across the I-70 corridor on Friday, bringing more isolated storms by the afternoon. However, the ingredients for severe weather will be more lacking, so general showers and thunderstorms are anticipated.
FUTURETRACK
![](https://abc17news.b-cdn.net/abc17news.com/2021/07/2q64zr0w-9pm.jpg)
![](https://abc17news.b-cdn.net/abc17news.com/2021/07/2am.jpg)
![](https://abc17news.b-cdn.net/abc17news.com/2021/07/36banmFC-7am.jpg)
WEEKEND OUTLOOK
![](https://abc17news.b-cdn.net/abc17news.com/2021/07/saturday.jpg)
Model guidance has been trending toward the front pushing across southern Missouri by the weekend. This would keep much of Mid-Missouri dry on Saturday and Sunday.