After a gorgeous few days with high pressure over the Great Lakes, a more unsettled pattern is shaping up for the weekend into next week with several waves of rain and thunderstorms rolling through Mid-Missouri.
We're tracking a low pressure system that will develop across the Plains and send a warm front in our direction on Saturday. As it lifts north over Missouri, moisture increases along with temperatures. This boundary settles across the northern half of the state, creating a trigger point for showers and eventually a few thunderstorms for several days.
We'll likely have some dry time over parts of the weekend, but the chance for thunder increases with a bit more instability Saturday night into Sunday. There will be a window of some drier weather later on Monday as this front slides south into Tuesday. However, the upper-level pattern will begin to shift at the end of the weekend with a deep low pressure center taking hold to our southwest. This will send warmer and more humid air in our direction and force the front back north into Mid-Missouri by Wednesday. More showers and storms can be expected Wednesday into Thursday, adding to our rain totals.
For Mizzou graduation Saturday, expect showers through most of the morning, starting to diminish by late afternoon through about midnight. Showers and a few thunderstorms are most likely south of I-70 overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, with a dry period during the day on Sunday before heavier rain moves in Sunday night.
Rain amounts will range between 2-4" between Friday and late next week, with local river flooding possible, especially where we see some heavier thunderstorms. Severe weather chances are limited over the weekend given the lack of ingredients, but the setup looks more favorable by Wednesday. The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team will be keeping a close eye on river levels by the end of the week.
A great way to stay on top of the forecast if you have weekend plans is to download and set your home location on the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App. Search "KMIZ" in the Google Play or Apple App Store. From there you can get alerts sent right to your device and keep an eye on the radar as well as the video forecast.