Another November “heat wave” on the way? More warmth expected next week
Our warm start to November
After late-October brought snow to mid-Missouri, Mother Nature has treated us pretty well.
Several top 5 records have already been broken across the state of Missouri for warm November weather. In fact, when we break down the numbers from Columbia Regional Airport, high temperatures averaged their fourth warmest on record during the first ten days of the month.
If you're a fan of this wonderful weather and are hopeful to get up Christmas decorations and rake a bunch of leaves in the next few weeks, you're in luck!
The 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center have mid-Missouri smack dab in the middle of another wave of above normal temperatures by the end of next week. This could last into the end of the month, too.
What's locking away the cold?
The cold air is definitely there. It's just locked in place up north. This is due to a very strong polar jet stream, which is moving in some cases up to 200mph.
Think of a faster jet stream like a tightening belt. The faster it moves, the tighter it's grip on air masses becomes. When that jet slows down, it tends to loosen up, allowing arctic air to droop south into the U.S.
This pattern looks like it will hold strong through much of the rest of November. Keep in mind, there will likely still be a few cool or even cold days in between, but the majority of days will feature warmer than normal weather.
Any hope for winter and snow fans?
There are some signs this pattern of above normal temperatures won't necessarily last into December. There are a few key features to pay attention to, especially this time of year. One in particular that can set the stage for winter outbreaks is snow pack in Canada, Alaska and Siberia.
While we "roast" here in the Midwest, there's plenty of cold air being generated up north, and the more snow that can fall up that way, will lead to more avenues for cold and snow to eventually arrive to our neck of the woods.
Unfortunately, that probably doesn't develop until later on in December. I'd say most of the rest of this month is shot for any major winter impacts (cold or snow).
-Luke