Warm weather in November, does it mean anything for the winter ahead?
The pattern behind the November warmth
A strong ridge of high pressure has set up across the mid-Atlantic. This will hold in place for the next several days before getting slowly chipped away by a western trough early next week.
However, much of the rest of November looks too keep that ridge, for the most part, stuck in place... probably weakening a bit, BUT in the end, would not be surprised to see the month close off warmer than normal.
Does it mean anything for the winter ahead?
So, this got me thinkin'.
Does a warm November mean anything for the winter ahead? I gathered data from 1970 to 2020 and found our 25 warmest Novembers from that time period.
It was about an hour of data crunching... and much like this week as gone, it gave me... little to no results. In fact, when I averaged everything out, there is NO tip in either direction for whether or not warmer than normal Novembers have led to snowier winters in the past 50 years.
However, there WERE a couple of interesting data points.
2016 and 2010.
2016 was our 4th warmest in this 50 year period and 2010 was the 8th-- so both in the ballpark of each other. However, analyzing snowfall data tells a world of difference. In fact, it was the greatest difference in all 50 years.
- 2016-2017 Winter - 1.6" (Least snowiest winter from 1970-2020)
- 2010-2011 Winter - 45.6" (Most snowiest winter from 1970-2020)
So... if that doesn't illustrate a lack of a pattern, and endear the true chaos of the atmosphere... well, I'm not sure what else will...
But hey, at least this weekend will be nice!
-Luke
