A cold front continues to track south across northern Missouri Monday afternoon. Instability values are expected to be very high due to the heat and humidity expected. Wind shear looks relatively low, so a tornado threat looks low at the moment.
Damaging wind, flash flooding and hail look like greater threats.
Storms have started to develop this afternoon and will continue to fill in and migrate east through this evening. Widespread coverage is expected by early evening.
Storms look to start tapering off before midnight where we should be dry by the time we get to the Tuesday morning commute.
Strong wind gusts between 60-70 mph are possible with the storms tomorrow evening. Heavy rainfall will also present a flash flooding threat as storms are expect to slow down as we lose heating of the day. Some models are indication 2-4" of rain that could fall in just a few hours, especially south of the I-70 corridor.
Quarter sized hail is also possible, especially early in the evolution of the storm complex.