Monday Morning Update:
It's starting to look like we may have avoided the worst of the flooding threat so far. We'll continue to monitor trends on radar, but the area of concern has shifted more into Illinois this morning. There's still a chance we pick up some afternoon showers & storms, east of HWY 63.
A compact area of low pressure has started to develop across the Illinois/Missouri border tonight into Tuesday morning. It's expected to drop several inches of rainfall providing for a potentially significant flash flooding threat by Tuesday morning.
The weather models are painting a more consistent picture of how much rain is expected to fall, with up to 2-6"+ inches of rain possible in some areas.
A few spotty thunderstorms have developed across mid-Missouri this afternoon, but most of the thunderstorm activity isn't expected to start until late tonight. The storm is expected to stall out and could produce dangerous flash flooding conditions through Tuesday morning along and north of I-70.
The rainfall looks to quickly taper off late in the morning Tuesday, giving us a break in the afternoon. Another round of heavy rain is possible late Tuesday night, but how this evolves is a little more unclear than the first round.
Rainfall amounts will vary GREATLY across mid-Missouri. Folks who are to the south and west of Columbia and Jefferson City will likely just see a few storms. However, as you head east in mid-Missouri, rainfall amounts from 2-5" of rain with isolated locations of 6"+ are possible.
Cities with the highest risk for flash flooding Tuesday morning include Moberly, Paris, Mexico, Fulton, Vandalia and Montgomery City.
Hot Weather Impacts
As we head into the rest of the week, extremely humid conditions are expected to take over. With daily high temperatures around 90, heat index values will approach 100º each afternoon. You'll want to practice heat safety if you're planning on spending extended periods of time outdoors. This includes drinking plenty of water, having sunscreen on hand, and taking frequent shade breaks.