On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center released their Winter 2019-2020 outlook for the United States.
Two key features come to play for mid-Missouri in their report.
They expect temperatures throughout the 3-month period to settle out near normal. This doesn’t imply that it will be warm necessarily, but that there are equal chances for warm periods and cold periods.
The same can be said about their idea for precipitation. They’re expecting above average preciptation across the northern plains (if that comes to fruition, we may struggle along the rivers again next year) with mid-Missouri once again seeing equal chances of above or below average precip.
While this may seem fairly ambiguous… as if it doesn’t matter, there are some patterns and clues that may be trying to develop here.
For one, a strong signal to warm air to our south, with a well-defined slice of relatively cooler air diving into mid-Missouri would imply that we will likely see quick dives of cold air, replaced quickly be warm, “spring-like” air.
This idea of a fast changing atmosphere is indicative that the active storm pattern will set up somewhere in the Midwest. This is highlighted in their precipitation outlook with the indication of the main storm path being off to our north.
What’s the bottom line for mid-Missouri? After going over this data, the StormTrack Weather Team has a couple quick-pick ideas for the upcoming winter.
We like the idea of a fast-paced temperatures changes, with classic mid-Missouri up and down temperature swings, and with the storm track just off to our north, major snowstorms may not be the big players. Instead, several quick-hitting, lower-accumulation storms are possible.
Now, there’s certainly a lot more that goes into winter weather as one big storm can throw the whole long-range forecast out the window… when we look back to last year, the January 11th-12th storm is likely still permeating through the minds of mid-Missourians.
It may have you asking… just HOW accurate are these reports?
Well, when we look back to last year, NOAA’s report wasn’t all too far off for us.
December’s temperatures fared well above average for the Midwest and featured well above average precipitation.
Precipitation slowed down in January and February leading to winter precip values trending just above average, when the forecast was for equal chances of above/below average.
What made a big difference for temperatures was the biting cold end to February, leading into March which led to a sharp dive in the mean temperature for the season, off-setting the warm December, ending the season slightly below average.
This is just a sneak peek at what we could be expecting for the winter season here in mid-Missouri.
We will be taking a more in-depth look at the winter forecast at the end of Winter Weather Special set to air in late-November when ABC 17 StormTrack Chief Meteorologist Jessica Quick gives her long-range forecast.
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