Weather Alert Day: Flooding and severe storms possible throughout Father’s Day

UPDATE (06/21/26 @ 6:00 PM):

The first round of storms has passed through central Missouri, and lots of rain was brought with it. Rain totals have already reached nearly 2 inches in some spots. Flooding will continue to be a risk for our southern counties, as a second round of storms is starting to form up just north of I-70. This line will be tracking south and impact most of our southern counties in the viewing area. All severe hazards are possible with this second system, including damaging winds, up to 1" diameter hail, and spin-up tornadoes. As mentioned, flooding risks will be compounded by further rain tonight. Because of these potential threats, a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 1 am this evening for Pulaski and Phelps counties. However, this round of storms should be out of the region by 10 pm tonight, when the Weather Alert Day will be allowed to expire.

An ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day has been issued for Sunday, Father's Day, for multiple chances of impactful weather. This will go into effect at 5:00 A.M. Sunday, as excessive rainfall and potentially damaging winds will be in the forecast thanks to a decaying MCS from the west. This Weather Alert Day will continue until 10:00 P.M. Sunday, as a secondary round of stronger storms is expected during the afternoon and evening hours, bringing the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and brief tornadoes, all while flooding will still be a concern.

SETUP:

A deepening low-pressure system from the west has been moving into Central Missouri over the last several hours. This already caused impactful weather for Kansas on Saturday, as much of the area was under an enhanced risk for strong to severe storms. The remnant MCS from this activity has moved into Mid-Missouri as the low-pressure system, and its associated warm front continues to push east.

As this warm front continues to lift north into Missouri, along with it will come more unstable air. The amount of coverage in storms that this warm front brings during the morning hours will determine where the best instability is for the afternoon round of storms, but as of right now, the environment that has been the most unaffected by morning convection is along and south of I-70. This would mean that storms would have the best chance of becoming severe in this area.

TIMING:

The morning MCS has moved through central Missouri as of 6 pm Sunday. Because much of southern Missouri avoided this system, the atmosphere has remained primed for the development of further thunderstorms. By 3-5 P.M., initiation of the second round of storms forming off the trailing cold front and leftover boundaries from previous storms has occurred, and will be mainly positioned south of I-70 due to the persistence of the morning convection.

IMPACTS:

Due to the nature of these systems, and due to the fact that Missouri has already received well above-average rainfall totals for June, flooding will be the most widespread concern. High rainfall rates will be associated with any of the stronger storms that will be present, and by the end of the day, 1-3" of total rainfall can be expected across all of Mid-Missouri.

For the morning round of storms, our primary risk was flooding, as high winds and hail were not an issue. During the evening hours, in areas where the atmosphere can recover and build instability, all threats will be possible. This means that damaging winds up to 60 mph, hail stones up to 1", and a few tornadoes could be a threat, all while flooding will still be a concern. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted most of Mid-Missouri in a slight or 2/5 risk because of these hazards, but expect this to be shifted around as details of the initial morning round become clearer.

With this actively changing forecast, it is important that you stay up to date and aware of the weather in your area. One of the ways you can do so is by downloading the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App, where you can receive alerts of storms in your area and updates from the team as we approach this system.