Insider Blog: Storms likely, damaging winds possible with storms overnight

OVERVIEW:

Storms are likely tonight and may bring a threat of damaging winds for some.

An upper-level wave will move an area of low pressure to the southeast along this front Tuesday through Wednesday. The low-level winds ahead of the low-pressure center will speed up tonight, driving thunderstorm development across eastern Kansas and western Missouri around sunset.

TIMING:

Storms may arrive locally anytime after storm development in the west, but it will likely be after 10 p.m. Tuesday. Confidence is low in exact timing, but storms are expected to spread eastward with time and keep rain in the forecast through the early Wednesday morning hours. The severe threat will come to an end with time as instability is forecast to remain low.

Storms are likely to develop ahead of the front again on Wednesday, but the concern for severe storms shifts south.

IMPACTS:

Storms that develop to our west on Tuesday evening will initially have a hail threat, but hail cores may not be maintained for long as these storms cluster together and move east. Damaging winds will be the main threat, as these storms generally weaken into scattered thunderstorms with time. Our overall threat for severe weather is low, and it revolves around storms that are strongest to our west and then move into Mid-Missouri, weakening along the way.

Rainfall will be heavy at times, possibly well into the night after the severe threat ends. While there is some concern for minor flooding, the flash flood threat is low, with rainfall totals in the wettest areas forecast at 1-3 inches.