Tracking a pleasant weekend that ends with storms

TODAY: Friday is mostly dry, after showers exit early this morning. Some rain may linger near I-44 for the morning drive. From 7 a.m. on, we expect dry weather until isolated showers and storms pop up in the south this afternoon. Our best chances for isolated rain and lightning will be near I-44. Dry weather is expected in Columbia and Jefferson City for the rest of the day. Most are sunny with highs near 75 this afternoon.

TONGIHT: Overnight, temperatures cool more than they have since Monday. Lows are expected in the upper 40s Saturday morning, which is very typical for this time of year.

EXTENDED: Sunshine and mid-70s are the rule this weekend, rather than the exception. We'll have beautiful weather through Sunday, when highs will again reach into the mid-70s. Clouds are more prevalent on Sunday, after a bright Saturday. This will precede a chance for strong storms Sunday night. A strengthening surface low is forecast to move in from the Ark-La-Tex Sunday night, bringing storms, some strong to severe, with a damaging wind threat into Missouri. It remains uncertain how much impact these storms will carry into mid-Missouri, as they arrive overnight into early Monday. Then, rain kicks off early Monday. What happens next will help determine our severe risk on Monday as the strengthening low will aim squarely at mid-MO with its warm sector. This region will be most conducive to severe weather as the low passes by. The question at the moment is how much early-morning rain and changes to the low's timing and track affect the potential for severe weather. Still, the system looks dynamic and very capable of severe storms if this scenario plays out, so keep an eye on the forecast for Sunday night AND Monday afternoon.