Fire danger persists in Mid-Missouri despite rain chances

Low rain chances are in the forecast, but so is fire danger.

A combination of unseasonably warm temperatures, gusty winds, and extremely low humidity will increase the risk of fires in Mid-Missouri in the coming days, leading the National Weather Service to issue Red Flag Warnings.

Jon Carney, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in St. Louis, explains that their office will only issue these alerts under very windy and dry conditions.

"We want sustained winds in excess of 15 mph, and relative humidity is usually below 25%, even below 20%. Sometimes we also need dry fuels." Jon says.

There is a lot of dry fuel across the area right now, due to the ongoing drought since last fall. Over 70% of Missouri is currently in a drought, with severe drought covering a third of the state to the south.

Limited rain chances are expected tomorrow, but Jon expects it will do little to reduce the dryness.

"To actually get real improvements in, you know, moderate to severe drought, you're going to have to have a pretty wet period," Jon explains, "We're going to have to have several inches of rain to improve that level of drought."

That doesn't look to be the case going into the spring.

"The three-month outlook, it's pretty close to equal chances out there in central Missouri, maybe a hair above normal." Jon says, "Unfortunately, from what I see, I wouldn't be particularly hopeful."

As dry weather could persist in Mid-Missouri, it's important to stay alert to any fires you start. Beware of "short-hour fuels" like leaf litter and twigs that can dry out in as little as an hour and easily cause fires to spread out of control.