Tracking a system that brings storms, soaking rain, and a big cooldown by the weekend
TODAY: Wednesday is just as warm as Monday, if not a bit warmer under sunny skies. Winds are from the south around 5-10 mph.
TONIGHT: Clouds increase tonight, ahead of rain chances early Thursday morning. Temperatures stay warm, falling only into the upper 40s.
EXTENDED: Thursday starts warm and dry just before sunrise, but rainfall begins around 6 a.m. near the Lake of the Ozarks, and spreads north in the west to HWY 50 by 7 a.m. and to I-70 shortly after. This initial band of rain may have some lightning, but will be mostly showers. Better chances for lightning and thunder will come with continued rain as this system moves into the region, bringing pockets of greater storm energy. Storms will likely move in from the southwest after the initial band around midday. New information this morning seems to still indicate a chance for strong storms and that these will have limited potential for damaging winds and possibly some small hail. Storms are most likely to be strong in the southwest, with uncertainty in whether or not they are able to remain strong as they spread northeast, so the chance for severe will technically cover all along and south of a line from Marshall to Mark Twain Lake, but the overall severe chance is very low north of HWY 50, and east of HWY 54. We'll also be watching developing instability south of I-44 in the afternoon and evening, but given morning chances for rain and storms, it seems that an evening storm chance would struggle this far north. Rain will come to an end late Thursday night as a cold front drags into the region. It will slow, and nearly stall across the region, and we may keep clouds around all of Friday, but rain chances drop dramatically as we look mostly dry Friday. Temperatures fall into the 40s and likely get stuck there on Friday, after a warm day on Thursday when highs are likely near 60. On Friday night, we'll have a quick brush with some cold precipitation during the transition to cooler air. This looks to be a mix of rain and snow at this point, but some may have potential for minor snow accumulations Saturday morning, especially in the northwest. Cold and dry weather is expected to return us to more seasonable air by Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Highs are likely near 40.
