Tracking a chance at severe storms tonight into Wednesday
TODAY: Tuesday will start cloudy, but dry, with temperatures in the 30s to just near 40. After a chilly start, temperatures will rebound nicely, into the low-to-mid 60s. As winds increase this morning, they will shift from easterly, to an increasingly southerly direction. Winds will be sustained near 15-25 mph, and gust to 30-35 mph at times.
TONIGHT: Tuesday night through Wednesday is a time frame designated as an ABC17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day. For the latest, reach our Weather Alert Day Blog. Severe weather is unlikely for most Tuesday night. We will be, however, watching a field of instability in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma later this evening. IF storms can develop here, we would expect them to grow upscale quickly. This could develop in to a storm threat for our western and northwestern counties as these storms progress northeast into the overnight. Timing of these storms would be around midnight to 3 a.m. The threat with these storms would be a declining threat for wind and hail as they would be moving into a persistently less suitable environment for storms.
EXTENDED: Early Wednesday morning will be a better chance for storms, as the actual dry line and cold front work through the region. To the east of this boundary, we'll see increasing warmth and moisture, which will lead to a growing fuel supply for storms arriving into the region. Through the morning, we expect the fuel supply to increase as these storms move east. The storms will be weakening on arrival around 5 a.m. in the northwest, but depending on available energy, could maintain a severe threat. This will likely wane over the next few hours through 8 a.m. By mid-to-late morning, this threat will return as the aforementioned energy returns east of these storms. This puts Columbia and Jefferson City again at the least risk for severe storms, much like our system over the weekend. However, we'll be closely watching these storms as they pass through eastern Missouri for primarily a hail and wind threat; and to a lesser extent a tornado threat, although should surface instability increase fast enough, tornadoes will be possible. Looking at the rest of the week, we'll have daily rain chances with waves that run along a stalled boundary to our south. This could lead to a flood risk in the southern Missouri. The flood threat should mostly avoid mid-Missouri, but we'll be watching for some impressive rain totals reach as far north as I-44. Rain chances continue through Saturday, with a drier end to the weekend expected. Temperatures reach into the 70s Wednesday ahead of the front, then we're in the 60s for highs the rest of the work week. 50s return for the weekend. Several inches of rain are forecast through the next 7 days, with Columbia and Jefferson City falling in the 2-4 inch range, and some near Rolla and the lake nearing 3-5 inches.
