Tracking a quiet mid-week, with more active weather towards the weekend
TODAY: Tuesday is a mild and bright day, with partly cloudy skies and a high in the mid-60s. A breeze will be the most impactful element of today's forecast with sustained winds around 10-15 mph, gusting from 20-25 mph at times. Some from the Lake of the Ozarks to Rolla will have an elevated fire risk, so burning is discouraged in these areas. Most of mid-Missouri will have enough moisture to preclude this threat.
TONIGHT: Overnight, skies remain mostly clear, and winds relax as weak high pressure works in from the north. Temperatures settle near 40.
EXTENDED: Wednesday is another day with near average highs and lows. We expect a high near 65 under partly cloudy skies with variable winds. A warm front returns early Thursday. This will set us on a course for 70+ degree highs, but also bring a chance for showers and storms through the morning to midday. This will be when the warm front is nearest mid-Missouri. The lift and wind shear tied to the front will serve as a focal point for storms, potentially providing enough support for some isolated large hail. The chance for these storms will be greatest north of I-70. This front will lift north, and leave us mostly dry on Friday, with temperatures pushing into the upper 70s, if not near 80. Saturday and Sunday are already the focus of much scrutiny, as an upper level trough moves through the region, brining an influx of moisture and instability ahead of it on Saturday and possibly Sunday. The evolution of the trough and it's attendant surface low will play a big role in when we see a chance for storms and how strong they may be. Currently, that could be Saturday evening, or it could be Sunday afternoon. The passage of storms could also come anytime in between, and so we continue to monitor the trends carefully. The concern is for a timing that lines up greater instability with the other support needed for severe weather locally in mid-Missouri. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates on this weekend's forecast.
