Tracking morning showers ahead of another pleasant afternoon

TODAY: Showers early on Tuesday will start to exit the region to the east after bringing light rain and a few snowflakes, by sunrise. Everyone will be dry by around noon. Clouds will clear behind this rain, and leave us with sunshine this afternoon. This should be just enough to push our temperatures into the low 50s.

TONIGHT: High pressure settles in overnight. Some high clouds from the north will reach over mid-Missouri, but the calm conditions and lack of low clouds will allow us to cool to around freezing by sunrise Wednesday.

EXTENDED: The clouds to our north are tied to a warm front that lifts farther away from us to the north on Wednesday. This keeps us south of the front, and under more sunshine, raising temperatures to near 60 by the afternoon. This warm up is amplified on Thursday, where we warm into the high 60s under partly cloudy skies. Shower and storm chances return late Thursday night, bleeding over into Friday morning. This will be the first round, ahead of round two Friday afternoon/evening that will pose a severe risk, as it looks right now. The ingredients for severe weather look to show up Friday afternoon and evening, ahead of a cold front that will wipe us dry. For now, all types of severe weather are on the table, but questions in timing and placement, and even how well morning rain materializes need to be answered with more clarity before we can increase our confidence in this particular forecast. Still, a strong signal for strong storms exists at the end of the week, so we need to keep Friday in the back of our minds. Drier weather arrives for the weekend, with temperatures cool on Saturday with a high in the 50s, but a return to warmer air in the forecast to start next week.