Tracking a windy day with widespread rain showers
TODAY: Rain and wind is the story for Tuesday. Showers are already trying to work to the ground here in mid-Missouri, but are mostly getting eaten up by dry air near the surface. Radar may fool us for a little while this morning, but by mid-to-late morning, persistent shower activity will eventually erode the dry air and allow this rain to make it to the ground. Better chances for rain come with round two, though, as more steady and widespread rainfall is expected around noon and will persist into the early afternoon. Overall amounts are relatively low, with only a quarter of an inch to a half inch expected for most in mid-Missouri. Winds will have a big impact on most of us today, as they will be sustained near 20 mph beginning this morning, and lasting through much of the night. Gusts, specifically with the second round of rain from late this morning through the afternoon, will climb as high as 35-45 mph for most, with localized gusts to 50 mph possible. The best window for gusty winds will come from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m.
TONIGHT: Winds will remain breezy, but less gusty overnight. The widespread rain chance comes to an end by 4 p.m., but another pocket of rainfall wraps in on the back edge of this system. This will be more localized, and less widespread but may produce some thunder and locally moderate rainfall. The timing of this features is targeting the dinner hour, so check radar before heading out if you have Valentine's day plans.
EXTENDED: Starting in the 40s on Wednesday morning, things begin warm, but will rapidly change through the day. A trailing cold front behind Tuesday's rain will greatly complicate the temperature forecast. Current data suggests we'll see a spread in temperatures from 40s to low 60s across mid-MO from the northwest to the southeast. Exactly who sees what will greatly depend on placement and timing of the front, but at this juncture it looks like it is trending farther southeast sooner in the day, which spells a cooler and cloudier day than previously thought. Prepare for a day in the 40s and 50s, as that is looking more likely for most. An easier forecast is the Chief's victory parade in Kansas City. That will almost certainly be cooler than the forecast for mid-Missouri, so plan accordingly and dress warm if you're headed that way. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a low pressure system approaches from the southwest, bringing rain and a mix to snow overnight. The best chance for accumulating snow looks to remain north of mid-Missouri given the current low track, but accumulations are possible, if not likely, in Saline, Chariton, and Macon counties, with a possibility of minor accumulations as far south as Warsaw, California, Columbia, and Mexico. This kicks off a two day cold stretch that keeps us in the 30s Thursday and Friday, before we warm back above normal for the weekend. Chances for rain are starting to pop back up into early next week.
