The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day for tonight ahead of the threat for isolated severe thunderstorms across Mid-Missouri. Isolated large hail up to quarter size, 50-60 mph winds, and a low threat of a weak tornado are the main concerns. Flooding impacts will be higher across far southern Missouri.
Temperatures have warmed as upper winds have shifted to the southwest, bringing temperatures into the 60s with more available moisture pooling across the region. A warm front has lifted to the north, putting Mid-Missouri in the warmer, more unstable sector of this system.
Ingredients will be in place for thunderstorm development ahead of a cold front, as modest instability grows and wind shear increases through this evening.
Storms will develop across the Missouri-Kansas border late Monday afternoon and will continue to work east through the evening, moving into Mid-Missouri along Highway 65 by 6:00 - 7:00 p.m. Strong winds will force storms quickly to the east, arriving in the Highway 63 corridor by around 8:00 p.m. The line of storms will push into the eastern half of the area by 10 p.m., leaving most areas storm-free after midnight.
The overall threat for widespread severe weather is low. However, given the setup and ingredients, we'll be on the lookout for hail between penny to quarter size, isolated 50-60 mph winds, and the threat of a weak isolated tornado. Rain amounts will range from about 0.5" to 0.75" with local 1" amounts possible in stronger thunderstorm clusters.
If you have unplugged your NOAA weather radio for the winter season, make sure it's plugged in or has fresh batteries. Download the ABC 17 Stormtrack weather app to get alerts right to your phone as watches or warnings are issued. Have a plan to take shelter if a warning is issued for your area.