Tracking potential for severe storms and heavy rain
TODAY: Thunderstorms to our west this morning will be in the process of decaying and weakening as they approach our northwestern counties. Thunder and lightning will remain for some time, but these storms should present little threat as they pass by. The cold front driving these storms looks to stall just northwest of the area, keeping a small chance for showers and storms in our northwest counties during the morning. As we approach the afternoon, this front looks to regenerate storm activity. It's at this point that we become concerned with severe potential as it then slowly makes progress into mid-Missouri. Very slow moving, this system will take a few hours to make progress through the northwest half of mid-MO. This is where the best ingredients will be for hail and damaging winds. As the evening progresses, these storms will move farther from their support structure, and available energy will begin to taper off. This should place the strongest storms over our northwestern most counties. As for timing, it is still questionable given the nature of the setup. Generally speaking, storms will begin to develop from Columbia, back to the northwest by around 3 p.m., with the line making slow enough progress, that it doesn't reach I-44 until closer to 3 a.m. Storms may also not be tied directly to the front, so that adds another element of ambiguity to the forecast. Highs today will also depend on timing, expect a warm and humid day ahead of storms, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. In addition to severe weather, flooding is also a concern with more than two inches of rain possible in the next two days. Read more in our Weather Alert Day Blog.
TONIGHT: As mentioned above, showers and storms are expected to linger all night. More shower activity is likely to linger behind the front. This will make for a wet day for most on Wednesday as well. Temperatures will be moderated by all of this rain. Expect a low in the high 60s by sunrise.
EXTENDED: Showers and storms still ongoing on Wednesday, will have a focus around I-44 and our southeastern most counties. Temperatures will be relatively cool; in the mid 70s on Wednesday. Clearing skies and 70s is expected Thursday and Friday. Saturday, we may see a return chance for a passing shower or storm. This chance grows into Sunday. Overall, next weekend looks seasonable, with spotty chances for rain.
