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Tracking the potential for severe this afternoon

TODAY: A Weather Alert Day is in place for the possibility of strong storms in today's forecast. A cold front will push through today, bringing a line of thunderstorms through mid-Missouri. There is a possibility that storms in this line along the cold front and any that develop out ahead of it, produce hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. While the possibility of all types of severe weather are in the forecast, the overall likelihood of them occurring is rather low. In addition to this, the window for severe in mid-MO is quite short; about 2 p.m. to 5 p.m. With just enough instability and shear present in the atmosphere in this window, we will need to watch storms closely this afternoon, and remain weather aware. Still, most will likely only end up dealing with heavy rain, and lightning with these storms. Outside of this window, we will see off and on showers and storms for much of the day. Otherwise, temperatures will be a hair warmer this afternoon; expect low 70s.

TONIGHT: After the round of storms arriving in the afternoon, another weak corridor of instability will linger in our south and eastern most counties. This may feed a few storms from Montgomery City to Rolla. This don't look to present much of a severe threat, but will likely bring some thunder. Otherwise, some off and on showers and storms may linger, with temperatures near 60 by sunrise on Thursday.

EXTENDED: Thursday will bring more hit and miss showers and storms with highs in the 60s as this stubborn system is slow to leave. Friday, more sun gets us into the low to mid 70s. This kicks off a warm up that takes us into the 80s for the rest of the 7 day forecast. Mostly dry weather expected into early next week.

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John Ross

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