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Tracking a lumbering cold front that brings a wet start to the weekend

TODAY: Friday starts warm under partly cloudy skies. A passing shower or storm near Macon county will be about all we expect to see through the morning hours. Through the morning and early afternoon, we should be able to keep some sunshine with partly to mostly cloudy skies. A cold front will slow be working it's way through the region causing a wide variety of high temperatures today. The slow moving front will allow some in central mid-Missouri and south to see highs in the middle 80s, if not upper 80s. With a lot of instability in the atmosphere, storms that develop will have isolated severe potential, but a cap in the atmosphere will prevent this for most of the day ahead of the front. By the afternoon, this will give way and storms will likely fire up along and ahead of the cold front. The overall environment is less than perfect aside from high levels of storm energy, so widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but an isolated hail risk will be present for a few hours. Storms likely develop 4-7 p.m., depending on the timing of the front, and erosion of the cap. Storms should generally weaken after sunset, but rain is expected to linger overnight and Saturday as the front is slow moving.

TONIGHT: In addition to storms popping up ahead of tonight's front, rain showers and thunderstorms will develop behind the front into the overnight hours. While there won't be a severe risk here, the flood risk becomes a concern as the system overall will be slow and supportive of continuous rainfall. Use caution during the dark hours Saturday morning over easily flooded areas. Temperatures will gradually fall into the 50s behind the front.

EXTENDED: Temperatures struggle to recover into the 60s Saturday with rain continuing throughout the day. By Saturday any severe risk shifts to our east. Sunday, we will dry out and gain some sunshine, leaving us a tad warmer, but still in the 60s. Our cold front leaves us refreshingly cool for the first half of next week. Cloudy, with an evening rain chance; Monday stays in the upper 60s. More widespread rain arrives Tuesday, where we still don't leave the upper 60s. We're barely approaching 70 on Wednesday where rain chances start to drop into Thursday, where highs climb into the mid 70s with more sunshine.

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John Ross


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