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Tracking storms that try to keep us cool

TODAY: Thursday morning, we start mostly clear, but clouds will be increasing through the morning. We start warm, with temperatures in the 60s. We would be on track to hit mid to upper 80s given the environment through much of the Midwest today, but a quick moving storm system moving through southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma is expected to pass by later this morning. The line of storms is expected to work it's way due east along a path of energy in the atmosphere. This would take it just to our south, and guidance even brings showers and storms into mid-Missouri. Some showers and storms are likely south of I-70 from this system through late morning and early afternoon. The widest impact from this will be a drop in forecast temperatures. Since many will sit under clouds from this system for much of the morning and afternoon, temperatures won't reach their full potential. Expect a high near 80. Some of these storms may produce some small hail south of I-70, with an isolated large hail and threat for gusty winds. The risk for sever weather will increase after 2-3 p.m. while these storms are pushing through our eastern counties towards St. Louis.


These storms will pass as quickly as they arrived, and we will clear out around sunset, with clouds not set to return until daylight hours on Friday. Expect a low in the upper 60s by early Friday morning.

EXTENDED: We don't catch a break, with more widespread rain expected on Friday. A slow moving cold front arrives sometime Friday afternoon. Timing is still a little unclear, but the idea is that Friday afternoon looks cloudy and wet. A lot of energy is available for the cold front to interact with Friday afternoon, but a strong cap in place will be the gatekeeper of that energy. Eventually, the front will win out, but the question is when. This is another complicating factor when it comes to timing. Overall, storms are likely Friday afternoon/evening. This cold front is in no hurry to leave, and upper level atmospheric factors keep moisture around, so rain is a good bet on Saturday as well. We may reach upper 80s Friday before the front, but temperatures are stifled on Saturday, as they don't climb out of the 60s. Sunday, sunshine returns, but we're still in the 60s. Monday puts us back into the 70s. A cooler than normal trend continues through midweek, with more chances for rain.

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John Ross


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