THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: The complex of showers and thunderstorms that produced 1-2" of rainfall across Mid-Missouri continues to move south late this afternoon. The atmosphere is having a tough time recovering in the wake of this system, and cloud cover continues to limit new development. That said, scattered storms are expected to move into areas north of I-70 along a cold front through late evening. The potential for severe weather is low with these, but there could be some heavy downpours and an isolated strong wind gust.
We've been stuck in a pretty persistent southerly flow the past few days. Warm temperatures and plenty of moisture will stick around into Thursday. We could be sitting on a powderkeg of an atmosphere by Thursday, waiting on a match to light the fuse. Storms will be leftover from the morning, but are expected to fall apart. As they do, the remnant boundary from those will race south to intersect a lifting warm front. With an unstable atmosphere expected to be in place by the time that happens, we could have all the ingredients for a rough day.
The first complex has moved out, really working over the atmosphere. A secondary round of storms has started to develop near Kansas City, but the severe weather threat is lower with these scattered storms.
Since we have two different timeframes to track, we have two different possible impacts. The morning batch of storms would likely only pose a damaging wind threat based on the type of storm it is.
If we can get storms to redevelop and become severe in the afternoon and evening, all modes of severe weather would be possible. Tornadoes, large hail, and some more damaging straight-line winds will all be on the table. Isolated flash flooding could also be an issue with high rainfall rates in storms.
WHAT TO DO
Now is the time to review your severe weather plan. Know where to go if severe weather were to strike Thursday morning or Thursday evening. You can download the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App for free to track those storms and any changes in the details in the days leading up. ABC 17's Zola Crowder talked to folks at the NWS office in St. Louis on steps to take when a warning is issued.