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WEATHER ALERT DAY: Severe threat diminishing

THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: The complex of showers and thunderstorms that produced 1-2" of rainfall across Mid-Missouri continues to move south late this afternoon. The atmosphere is having a tough time recovering in the wake of this system, and cloud cover continues to limit new development. That said, scattered storms are expected to move into areas north of I-70 along a cold front through late evening. The potential for severe weather is low with these, but there could be some heavy downpours and an isolated strong wind gust.

SETUP

We've been stuck in a pretty persistent southerly flow the past few days. Warm temperatures and plenty of moisture will stick around into Thursday. We could be sitting on a powderkeg of an atmosphere by Thursday, waiting on a match to light the fuse. Storms will be leftover from the morning, but are expected to fall apart. As they do, the remnant boundary from those will race south to intersect a lifting warm front. With an unstable atmosphere expected to be in place by the time that happens, we could have all the ingredients for a rough day.

TIMING

The first complex has moved out, really working over the atmosphere. A secondary round of storms has started to develop near Kansas City, but the severe weather threat is lower with these scattered storms.

IMPACTS

Since we have two different timeframes to track, we have two different possible impacts. The morning batch of storms would likely only pose a damaging wind threat based on the type of storm it is.

If we can get storms to redevelop and become severe in the afternoon and evening, all modes of severe weather would be possible. Tornadoes, large hail, and some more damaging straight-line winds will all be on the table. Isolated flash flooding could also be an issue with high rainfall rates in storms.

WHAT TO DO

Now is the time to review your severe weather plan. Know where to go if severe weather were to strike Thursday morning or Thursday evening. You can download the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App for free to track those storms and any changes in the details in the days leading up. ABC 17's Zola Crowder talked to folks at the NWS office in St. Louis on steps to take when a warning is issued.

Insider Blog / Weather Video

Kevin Schneider

Kevin Schneider gives the latest forecast each weekday morning on ABC 17 News.

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Chance Gotsch

Chance Gotsch grew up just south of St. Louis and moved to Columbia to attend the University of Missouri to pursue a degree in Atmospheric Sciences.

His interest in weather begin as a child when he used to be afraid of storms. Years later, he purchased a weather forecasting book and weather station at his elementary Scholastic Book Fair. After reading into the hows and whys of atmospheric science, he quickly became interested and gained his new passion.

Chance joined the ABC17 Stormtrack Weather Team in February of 2021. He is currently the weekend afternoon forecaster.

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Jessica Hafner

Jessica Hafner returned to ABC 17 News as chief meteorologist in 2019 after working here under Sharon Ray from 2014 to 2016.

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Maddie Est

Maddie Est appears on ABC 17’s weekend evening broadcasts. She grew up in St. Louis, and her passion for weather originated from a young age thanks to all the different weather that St. Louis receives. She is currently studying Atmospheric Science at the University of Missouri.

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Nate Splater

Nate forecasts on the weekend edition of ABC 17 News This Morning on KMIZ and FOX 22, KQFX.

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