27 senators are up for reelection—which, if any, are 'progressive' relative to the political lean of their states?
Anna Moneymaker // Getty Images
27 senators are up for reelection—which, if any, are ‘progressive’ relative to the political lean of their states?
Senator Kyrsten Sinema speaks at a news conference.
Over the past three decades, Democratic Party voters have shifted more to the left than voters in the Republican Party have to the right, according to a report by the Brookings Institution. Gallup Poll data shows that since 1994, the share of Democratic voters self-identifying as “liberal” has more than doubled, growing from 25% to 54%, a new high, in 2023. The ongoing ideological transitioning of the party’s voters has compelled many traditionally moderate Democrats to embrace progressive talking points and entrenched the influence of the progressive bloc within the Democratic party.
Stacker used data from Progressive Punch to see how progressive the 27 senators running for reelection in 2024 are relative to the Democratic or Republican leanings of their home states. Thirty-four Senate seats are up for election in 2024 and seven senators have announced their retirement, are seeking a different office, or are otherwise not running for reelection.
Twelve senators—from Elizabeth Warren to Sherrod Brown—are used as a “progressive control group” to measure against Republican Party positions as a whole. Their voting patterns form a “progressive position,” and the rating methodology identifies any ideological vote in which a majority of this 12-member bloc opposed a majority of Republicans as “overall progressive.”
The rating also relies on each legislator’s percentage of “lifetime crucial votes,” in which the progressives were on the losing side, but the margin was narrow enough that a few differently cast Democratic votes could have altered the outcome. In other words, this metric represents the “where were you when we needed you” roll call votes for each assessed legislator. In situations where Democrats control a legislative body, such as the U.S. Senate for 2023-24, all close votes and votes where the progressive side lost are classified as crucial.
The rating also considers the political leanings of each state to assess each legislator’s progressiveness accurately. The “state tilt” represents a likely outcome of an open-seat race in the absence of any significant scandal. There are five tilt categories: Strong Republican, Leaning Republican, Swing, Leaning Democratic, and Strong Democratic. Each category has a threshold percentage of lifetime crucial votes and an associated grade to classify a senator as progressive. The thresholds are as follows:
Strong Democratic: 83.33 (B)
Leaning Democratic: 80.00 (B-)
Swing: 76.67 (C+)
Leaning Republican: 73.33 (C)
Strong Republican: 70.00 (C-)
Kevin Dietsch // Getty Images
#27. Pete Ricketts, Nebraska (R)
Senator Pete Ricketts speaks at press conference.
– Progressive rating: F
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: -70.0%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 0.0%
— Overall progressive vote score: 6.7%
— State tilt: Strong Republican
Kevin Dietsch // Getty Images
#26. Deb Fischer, Nebraska (R)
Senator Deb Fischer speaks at press conference.
– Progressive rating: F
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: -69.6%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 0.4%
— Overall progressive vote score: 3.5%
— State tilt: Strong Republican
Alex Wong // Getty Images
#25. Rick Scott, Florida (R)
Senator Rick Scott speaks at CPAC.
– Progressive rating: F
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: -69.4%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 0.5%
— Overall progressive vote score: 1.0%
— State tilt: Strong Republican
Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
#24. Kevin Cramer, North Dakota (R)
Senator Kevin Cramer speaks to reporters.
– Progressive rating: F
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: -69.4%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 0.5%
— Overall progressive vote score: 6.3%
— State tilt: Strong Republican
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#23. Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee (R)
Senator Marsha Blackburn speaks at CPAC.
– Progressive rating: F
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: -69.4%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 0.5%
— Overall progressive vote score: 1.5%
— State tilt: Strong Republican
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
#22. John Barrasso, Wyoming (R)
Senator John Barrasso speaks in a hearing.
– Progressive rating: F
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: -69.2%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 0.7%
— Overall progressive vote score: 2.4%
— State tilt: Strong Republican
Kevin Dietsch // Getty Images
#21. Roger Wicker, Mississippi (R)
Senator Roger Wicker speaks at press conference.
– Progressive rating: F
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: -68.8%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 1.1%
— Overall progressive vote score: 8.4%
— State tilt: Strong Republican
Tom Williams-Pool/Getty Images
#20. Josh Hawley, Missouri (R)
Senator Josh Hawley speaks in confirmation hearing.
– Progressive rating: F
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: -68.8%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 1.2%
— Overall progressive vote score: 2.5%
— State tilt: Strong Republican
Kevin Dietsch // Getty Images
#19. Ted Cruz, Texas (R)
Senator Ted Cruz speaks at a press conference.
– Progressive rating: F
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: -67.4%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 2.5%
— Overall progressive vote score: 2.5%
— State tilt: Strong Republican
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
#18. Mitt Romney, Utah (R)
Senator Mitt Romney speaks at a hearing.
– Progressive rating: F
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: -65.7%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 4.3%
— Overall progressive vote score: 18.9%
— State tilt: Strong Republican
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
#17. Tom Carper, Delaware (D)
Senator Tom Carper speaks in the U.S. Capitol.
– Progressive rating: F
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: -8.40%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 74.9%
— Overall progressive vote score: 84.6%
— State tilt: Strong Democratic
Kevin Dietsch // Getty Images
#16. Joe Manchin, West Virginia (D)
Senator Joe Manchin presides over a hearing.
– Progressive rating: F
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: -8.17%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 61.8%
— Overall progressive vote score: 69.4%
— State tilt: Strong Republican
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
#15. Angus King, Maine (I)
Senator Angus King photographed in the U.S. Capitol.
– Progressive rating: F
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: -3.82%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 76.2%
— Overall progressive vote score: 84.6%
— State tilt: Leans Democratic
Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
#14. Kyrsten Sinema, Arizona (I)
Senator Kyrsten Sinema leaving a meeting.
– Progressive rating: D
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: -0.22%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 76.5%
— Overall progressive vote score: 79.2%
— State tilt: Swing
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
#13. Tim Kaine, Virginia (D)
Senator Tim Kaine speaks in a hearing.
– Progressive rating: B
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: +3.38%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 83.4%
— Overall progressive vote score: 88.7%
— State tilt: Leans Democratic
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
#12. Maria Cantwell, Washington (D)
Senator Maria Cantwell speaks in a hearing.
– Progressive rating: B
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: +5.85%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 89.2%
— Overall progressive vote score: 93.1%
— State tilt: Strong Democratic
Joe Raedle // Getty Images
#11. Jon Tester, Montana (D)
Senator Jon Tester speaks during a press conference.
– Progressive rating: A
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: +7.53%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 77.5%
— Overall progressive vote score: 86.3%
— State tilt: Strong Republican
Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
#10. Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota (D)
Senator Amy Klobuchar speaks at a news conference.
– Progressive rating: A
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: +7.91%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 87.9%
— Overall progressive vote score: 92.5%
— State tilt: Leans Democratic
Chip Somodevilla // Getty Images
#9. Ben Cardin, Maryland (D)
Senator Ben Cardin presides over a hearing.
– Progressive rating: A
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: +8.35%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 91.7%
— Overall progressive vote score: 94.2%
— State tilt: Strong Democratic
Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
#8. Jacky Rosen, Nevada (D)
Senator Jacky Rosen speaks in a hearing.
– Progressive rating: A
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: +8.60%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 85.3%
— Overall progressive vote score: 89.5%
— State tilt: Swing
Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
#7. Sheldon Whitehouse, Rhode Island (D)
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse speaks at news conference.
– Progressive rating: A
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: +9.15%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 92.5%
— Overall progressive vote score: 94.2%
— State tilt: Strong Democratic
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
#6. Kirsten Gillibrand, New York (D)
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand speaks at a news conference.
– Progressive rating: A
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: +13.8%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 97.2%
— Overall progressive vote score: 98.5%
— State tilt: Strong Democratic
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
#5. Martin Heinrich, New Mexico (D)
Senator Martin Heinrich speaks at a hearing.
– Progressive rating: A
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: +13.9%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 93.9%
— Overall progressive vote score: 94.5%
— State tilt: Leans Democratic
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
#4. Mazie Hirono, Hawaii (D)
Senator Mazie Hirono speaks at a hearing.
– Progressive rating: A
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: +14.5%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 97.8%
— Overall progressive vote score: 97.9%
— State tilt: Strong Democratic
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
#3. Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts (D)
Senator Elizabeth Warren asks questions in a hearing.
– Progressive rating: A
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: +14.5%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 97.8%
— Overall progressive vote score: 98.9%
— State tilt: Strong Democratic
Anna Moneymaker // Getty Images
#2. Tammy Baldwin, Wisconsin (D)
Senator Tammy Baldwin speaks at a bill enrollment ceremony.
– Progressive rating: A
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: +18.6%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 95.3%
— Overall progressive vote score: 95.1%
— State tilt: Swing
Anna Moneymaker // Getty Images
#1. Sherrod Brown, Ohio (D)
Senator Sherrod Brown speaks at a press conference.
– Progressive rating: A
– Progressive score vs. state tilt: +25.5%
— Crucial progressive vote score: 95.5%
— Overall progressive vote score: 96.4%
— State tilt: Strong Republican
Data reporting by Sam Larson.
