GOP senator said gas prices would decide the midterms. Now they’re threatening his reelection

By Andrew Kaczynski, Em Steck, CNN

(CNN) — Republican Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas boldly declared in July that “the midterms will be decided by the price of gasoline in October.”

That prediction now looks strikingly prescient — though not in the way Marshall may have hoped: October has arrived with gasoline prices sharply higher, and Republican candidates across the country facing surprisingly competitive races.

Since the war in Iran began in late February, the average price of gasoline in the US has risen by about 46%, driven largely by disruptions to global oil markets caused by the war that many Republicans, Marshall included, have consistently defended.

In Kansas, the change is even more stark, with gas and diesel prices up more than 57% and 77%, according to AAA data.

As Republicans have started to adjust their messaging around the war, millions of dollars in political spending are also being redirected in a sign that the GOP is attempting to shore up its defense in reliably Republican states.

Marshall is the top beneficiary of that shift, as Republican super PACs pour millions of dollars into Kansas. Much of that money had been intended for North Carolina, where GOP Senate nominee Michael Whatley has long been trailing in polls.

Senate Leadership Fund, one of the main Republican groups supporting Senate candidates, has booked nearly $10 million worth of ads in Kansas, according to AdImpact.

That last-minute investment underscores how Marshall’s unequivocal support for the war — including his insistence that its economic costs were worth bearing — has become a real liability in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.

Marshall finds himself in an unexpectedly close contest with Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, a pastor and founder of the nation’s largest Methodist congregation.

In comments from the last several months reviewed by CNN’s KFile, Marshall consistently argued that the war was worth the economic toll. He said Americans would have to “make some sacrifices” and that national security was “even more important than your pocketbook,” later adding that keeping Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was “worth the price.”

Marshall himself has repeatedly acknowledged gas prices as an electoral liability, calling them “absolutely the barometer for this election” in June.

Gasoline prices in Kansas are still lower than the national average, but they have risen faster overall since the war began, eroding some of the state’s advantage of having cheaper fuel. Today, Kansas gasoline averages about $4.01 a gallon and diesel about $6.01, according to AAA Fuel Prices. Gas is up from roughly $2.55 a gallon in the state from just before the war began, amounting to increases of about 57.5% for regular gasoline and about 77.6% for diesel.

Rising diesel prices are particularly consequential for Kansas farmers, who rely on that fuel to operate tractors and trucks during the fall harvest and winter wheat planting season. The increased costs come as farmers are already grappling with higher fertilizer expenses and tight operating margins.

While some Republicans in tough Senate races have backed away from support for the war, Marshall’s support remains steadfast.

The Marshall campaign did not reply to CNN’s request for comment.

When asked about rising gas prices in an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins in March shortly after the war with Iran began, Marshall answered that “Freedom is not free. Americans are going to have to make some sacrifices.”

“We’re the largest producer of oil in the world, that we are the second biggest exporter of oil in the world,” Marshall said. “So, we’re not going to be shut out economically from this … but this is one of the prices of war.”

In an April interview with Newsmax, Marshall was asked about energy prices and how long America would be willing to pay high energy costs. Marshall compared it to sacrifices during World War II.

“We have to do it until we get the outcome that we want,” he said. “I hope it’s weeks and not months. But at the end of the day, Americans are gonna be safer.”

“So, I’m sorry the gas prices are going up, but help is on his way,” Marshall added. “And your national security, yes, is even more important than your pocketbook.”

A day later, Marshall took that argument directly to farmers in his home state, acknowledging the strain of higher fuel and fertilizer costs while warning that the economic consequences could be far worse if Iran obtained a nuclear weapon and controlled the Strait of Hormuz.

“If this theocracy in Iran continues, and they develop a nuclear weapon and they control the strait, diesel fuel is going to go up to $15 a gallon and your fertilizers go up another 50% as well,” Marshall said on RFD-TV, a channel dedicated to rural issues. “We hope this is short term. I appreciate the sacrifice the American farmer is making,” he continued.

By late May, Marshall was still predicting that the economic fallout would be temporary. In an interview with Fox Business, he urged Americans “to stand behind the president, stand behind the commander in chief, stand behind our troops,” adding, “I do think this war will be over sooner than later, and those gas prices will come back down.”

“We cannot allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” he said.

The following month, Marshall pointed to the Trump administration’s new memorandum of understanding with Iran as evidence that both the war and its economic consequences were easing.

“Americans are done with forever wars. Americans deserve affordable gas and groceries, and this agreement accomplishes just that,” Marshall said in a June CNN interview, adding that gas prices were falling as the Strait of Hormuz reopened.

“I believe the benefits outweigh the risks,” Marshall said on CNBC that same month.

The agreement quickly unraveled. By early July, negotiations had stalled, fighting had resumed and President Donald Trump declared the memorandum of understanding “over.”

In July, Marshall was openly acknowledging the political stakes of high fuel prices.

On a local radio station, he said “the midterms will be decided by the price of gasoline in October,” before arguing for swifter action: “So, I think if we’re going to do something, we got to rip the Band-Aid off and just go in there.”

And in August, Marshall told that same local radio station, “We want [the war] to be done tomorrow, but on the other hand, we can’t allow Iran to have nukes. So this may be the price.”

Last week, the Cook Political Report shifted the Kansas Senate race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.”

And while Marshall spent much of the spring predicting the war’s economic consequences would be temporary, gasoline prices remain elevated just weeks before Election Day.

It leaves Marshall confronting the very political test he predicted in July, when he said that the midterms would be decided by the price of gasoline in October.

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