High gas prices become another midterm warning sign for Republicans

By Arit John, CNN

(CNN) — In a midterm election that will likely be decided by how voters feel about the economy, Republicans are grappling with how to discuss the war in Iran and its impact on fuel costs.

Republicans had spent the weeks before the war touting lower prices under President Donald Trump. Now, with the national average for gas rising above $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022 and Trump’s economic approval ratings hitting a record low, Democrats are seeking to tie the war to their broader affordability message, arguing that Republicans are more focused on foreign affairs than reducing costs at home.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, House Democrats’ campaign arm, started running digital ads last month in all of their 44 target districts blaming congressional Republicans for higher gas prices.

Some Democratic candidates like Janelle Stelson, who is seeking a rematch against Rep. Scott Perry, a Pennsylvania Republican, have taken their message directly to the voters at gas stations in the districts they seek to represent.

“We should be spending money at home, not $1 billion a day for a war in Iran,” Stelson told CNN in an interview. “Meantime, you have everybody here in central Pennsylvania saying, ‘Look at me. I need help. I could use a little, teeny piece of that money.’”

(The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, DC-based think tank, has estimated the war costs more than $890 million a day.)

Perry’s campaign did not respond to requests from CNN. But the congressman told City & State Pennsylvania that he hoped to see gas prices fall soon.

“Like so many citizens across our region and nation, I want gas prices to come down, and I understand firsthand the strain these high prices put on families,” Perry said in a statement to the outlet. “It’s everyone’s goal that resolution will be brought to the War in Iran soon, so we can be rid of the threat of a nuclear Iran and energy prices can return to pre-war levels.”

Oil prices dropped Friday after Trump and Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire between the two nations.

“I think a lot of Republicans are breathing a sigh of relief that this episode is winding down,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist. “Trump was elected to tame inflation and create jobs, and if he can show progress on that before the midterms, Republicans will be in much better shape.”

Republicans have argued that higher gas prices are temporary – even though gas prices tend to shoot up quickly when oil becomes more expensive and take longer to fall when oil prices decline. Analysts say that high gas prices will linger even after the military conflict ends.

The House GOP’s campaign arm also points to policies like tax breaks on tips that it says have boosted incomes.

“After years of Democrats’ reckless policies that drove up costs to record levels, voters see the difference and trust Republicans to keep the economy moving in the right direction,” Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement.

Searching for the right message

Democrats note that lower oil prices don’t necessarily mean voters will feel that at the pump and prices in other sectors are high.

“No matter how hard they try, there is absolutely no way for congressional Republicans to outrun the political albatross that their broken promises on affordability have become when the midterms arrive, and voters reject them,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Viet Shelton said in a statement.

Throughout the war, Democrats have zeroed in on comments their Republican opponents have made seeking to justify the war or urging Americans to endure higher gas prices temporarily. In Minnesota, Republican Senate candidate Michele Tafoya encouraged Americans to “keep a stiff upper lip.”

“Maybe you take one less trip to Starbucks and so that gas goes a little further until this thing is over and these gas prices come back down again,” she told radio host Todd Starnes last month. “Let’s just try to be patriots about this.”

In San Diego, where Republicans are hoping to hold onto the redrawn House seat being vacated by Rep. Darrell Issa, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond defended the war effort days after he launched his campaign last month, saying it was necessary to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons.

“No pain, no gain,” Desmond said during an interview on Real America News. “It’s unfortunate that oil prices are going up, but I do believe this is a spike and President Trump is right – once we are able to get rid of their nuclear capabilities, oil prices will come down again.”

One of the Democrats running in the open primary for Issa’s old seat, San Diego city councilmember Marni von Wilpert, has referenced the comments throughout her campaign, including at her own recent gas station press conference.

Republicans have also compared the current spike in gas costs to the high prices under former President Joe Biden. Gas prices rose to a record high average price of $5 a gallon in 2022, according to AAA, fueled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, US and European sanctions on Russia and the slow return of US oil production and refinery capabilities to pre-pandemic levels.

Asked how much longer his constituents will need to tolerate gas prices over $4 a gallon, New York Rep. Mike Lawler told Bloomberg News his constituents “suffered greatly” under those prices under Biden and “many of my Democratic colleagues said everything was great.”

“But the fact is, this is a short-term fluctuation in the oil markets that we will focus on like a laser to bring down and ensure that gas prices come back below $3 as expeditiously as possible,” Lawler said.

In Democratic-led states like California and New York, where costs for gas and other goods were already high compared to the rest of the country, Republicans are urging their candidates to shift some of the attention to Democratic policies they argue have also contributed to high costs.

“These Republicans in blue states need to run against their blue-state governance — and pretend they’ve never heard of Donald Trump,” said Rob Stutzman, a California-based Republican strategist.

Brent Buchanan, a Republican pollster, advised his party’s candidates to be transparent with voters about the path forward.

“People want to know what the plan is,” he said. “Voters are more forgiving when they know what’s ahead, even if that means we’re going to have high gas prices until the end of August.”

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