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Texas Rep. Steve Toth will defeat GOP Rep. Dan Crenshaw in primary upset, CNN projects

By Arit John and Molly English, CNN

(CNN) — State Rep. Steve Toth will defeat US Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the Republican primary for Texas’ 2nd District, CNN’s Decision Desk has projected, a stunning upset in a race that tested whether the incumbent was deemed sufficiently loyal to the president.

Crenshaw, a four-term congressman and former Navy SEAL, has had a complicated relationship with the conservative wing of his party. Though he has been an ally of President Donald Trump, he has also clashed with the president and the MAGA movement over his support for Ukraine and resettling Afghan allies, as well as his vote to certify Trump’s loss in the 2020 presidential election.

The incumbent has also been critical of members of his party, who he’s called “grifters” and “performance artists” who tell conservatives what they want to hear.

Those policy and stylistic differences have drawn the ire of members of his party, including US Sen. Ted Cruz, who endorsed Toth and appeared in a super PAC ad backing the challenger. (Cruz’s team took a victory lap after Toth declared victory.)

Crenshaw is projected to lose despite outraising Toth by more than $1.5 million.

This isn’t Toth’s first time challenging an incumbent. He tried, and failed, to unseat former Rep. Kevin Brady in Texas’ 8th District in 2016.

Toth, a former megachurch pastor and local business owner, has been one of the most conservative members of the Texas legislature, where he’s served on-and-off for more than a decade. In 2024, he was among four Texas House Republicans who were censured for campaigning against members of their party they deemed too “liberal.”

Texas’ 2nd District, which is north of Houston, changed slightly due to Republican-led mid-decade redistricting aimed at netting the GOP as many as five additional US House seats. Much of Toth’s state House seat was drawn into the 2nd District.

The seat remains strongly Republican, and Toth will be heavily favored in the November matchup against Democrat and businessman Shaun Finnie, who ran unopposed in his own primary Tuesday.

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