More redistricting bad news for Republicans: Texas may not net five GOP seats like they planned

By Edward Wu, Molly English, CNN

(CNN) — The Republican plans to pick off five Democratic-held congressional seats in Texas once seemed like a sure thing. Not anymore.

President Donald Trump’s flagging approval ratings, particularly among Latinos, and strong Democratic performance in this year’s special elections have changed both parties’ assumptions. Now, the cushion the Texas GOP drew into its new map – Trump won every Republican-favored district by 10 points or more a year ago – seems like it might be too small.

Democrats beat Trump’s 2024 results in five US House districts with special elections this year by at least 13 points. Over-performance at that level next year would flip three of the five new Texas seats to the Democratic column, though it’s unlikely that performance will be replicated in every district around the country, and recent polling suggests that Democrats currently have a more modest national advantage.

“I can feel it on the ground,” said Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, whose South Texas district was one of the five targeted by Republicans. “I really anticipate us taking the majority back next cycle and winning back South Texas and places that had been traditional Democratic districts that have turned on us in the last few cycles, with so many disillusioned people.”

Republicans are still likely to make overall gains in the national redistricting battle with the help of Texas, North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio, even after Indiana’s Republican senators rejected new maps despite Trump’s pressure. But shifting national trends could change what both parties expect to gain as they redraw their maps.

Eduardo Leal, press secretary for Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who pushed the GOP-led legislature to redistrict and is running for a fourth term next year, said the “vast majority of Texans” share Abbott’s values: “secure borders, safer communities, and an economy that keeps Texas affordable.”

“We compete for every vote, because elections aren’t won on past results but on a clear vision and proven experience that delivers for all Texans,” Leal said in a statement. “We’re confident that message continues to resonate with Latino voters statewide.”

The GOP bet on Latinos is less certain

Trump improved Republicans’ standing with Latino voters in 2024, winning about 46%, according to 2024 exit polls, up from 32% in 2020. Texas’ new maps sought to build on Trump’s strong performance in the state, which he won by 14 points. Notably, Trump won every county in the heavily Latino Rio Grande Valley, which was long a Democratic stronghold.

Four of the five Democratic-held seats targeted by the state GOP are majority Latino under the new maps, with the 28th Congressional District, represented by longtime Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, topping out at over 90% Latino.

But Trump’s standing among Latinos has fallen dramatically nationwide since the start of his second term, outpacing his drop in approval overall. In three statewide races this November – a Democratic-backed ballot measure in California and gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia – Democrats gained the most in counties with higher shares of Latinos, even outpacing Joe Biden’s 2020 margins there.

And in Miami, a Democratic-backed candidate won the mayoral election earlier this month, breaking nearly 30 years of Republican-aligned control of the nonpartisan seat.

In Texas, Trump’s approval rating among Latinos dropped from 44% in February to 32% in October, according to the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll. The 2025 UH-TSU Texas Trends Survey found Latinos in Texas expressing regret for their 2024 vote at higher rates than Texan voters overall. When asked how they would have voted in the 2024 presidential election if they could vote again, Texan Latinos backed Democrat Kamala Harris by a margin of 11 points, a 19-point swing from the 8-point margin by which the same group said they supported Trump in 2024.

Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist and founder of Solidarity Strategies, told CNN that he thought Latinos could swing back to Democrats next year by a five- to 20-point margin.

“I think they’re all going to snap back,” Rocha said. “It’s just, do they get back to the norms of where it was before Trump?”

Gonzalez told CNN that he’s been seeing that discontent among his own constituents in the past year. His new district is more than three-quarters Latino.

Gonzalez highlighted that affordability is the top issue in his district, along with a shortage of labor and an increased presence of immigration officers on the ground.

“I don’t think Democrats, and especially Latinos, who voted for Trump ever expected that this would happen,” Gonzalez later said. “And now it has, and it’s compounded – that is compounded with a lot of the other problems that we’re talking about, economic problems and inflation and people, the American people, are continuing to struggle.”

A big swing among Texas Latinos could put the GOP-held 15th Congressional District in play too. Currently held by Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, the 15th District voted comfortably for Trump in 2024 (he won by 18 points under 2026 lines), but his margin was considerably more modest in 2020 (2 points). Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke won the district by 11 points in his 2018 US Senate run. De La Cruz’s electoral margins barely change under the new map.

Patrick Ruffini, pollster and founding partner at Republican firm Echelon Insights, argued before last year’s presidential election that Trump could lead a realignment to bring many Latinos into a GOP coalition focused on working-class issues.

“These are the most important voters to cultivate because they are the swingiest,” Ruffini told CNN about the Latino vote. “Without them … it’s kind of very hard for Democrats to have long-term success in presidential elections. I think that should absolutely be more of a focus for the administration and for the Republicans heading into the midterms.”

South Texas is home to a more conservative population intimately familiar with the border, Ruffini said. But Rocha believes even just a slight change in the voting habits of Latinos in rural areas could flip districts on the edge.

The broader electoral climate has favored Democrats this year

Democrats notched strong performances in the five special elections for US House this year, over-performing 2024 presidential margins by at least 13 points in each race and averaging a 17-point improvement overall.

Special elections tend to be lower-turnout events, and typically, only the most partisan and highly engaged voters participate. But an early December special election in Tennessee’s 7th congressional district featured turnout roughly on par with that of the 2022 midterm election. Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn lost that race by 9 points, trimming Trump’s 22-point margin in the district by 13 points.

In CNN’s latest poll, registered voters preferred Democratic over Republican candidates in their House district by 5 points (that’s roughly a 7-point improvement compared with 2024). Democratic candidates may end up with a larger margin among voters who actually turn out given the growing evidence of Democratic advantage in voter motivation.

“Affordability is really the front and center issue right now. I think that’s really the primary concern and the primary component of this,” Ruffini told CNN. “I think that Donald Trump doesn’t need to convince people that he feels their pain, but I think he does need to make the case that Democrats are too weak to fix it.”

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This story has been updated to add a statement from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s office.