WEATHER ALERT DAY: Two potential rounds of severe storms through late Friday night

An ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day is in effect for the potential of two rounds of severe storms between this afternoon and tonight, each bringing separate hazards.

A warm front is draped across far northern Missouri, where there will be a risk for isolated supercell thunderstorms that could produce large hail and tornadoes from late afternoon through mid-evening. From there, the risk for damaging winds will increase to the west along the cold front as storms develop later tonight and move east through the wee hours of Saturday.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for Macon County and points north of Highway 36 until 10:00 p.m. Farther south, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10:00 for the counties above shaded in pink, stretching from Moberly to Boonville and down toward Truman Lake.

Several inches of rain have fallen in the west over the past 3 days, with heavy rain 2 nights ago causing flooding. Flood reports stretch from the lake area to Macon County. 3-Day rain totals are now up to nearly 4-5 inches in some spots in Pettis, Benton, Morgan, and Cooper counties.

SETUP

We are monitoring a threat for all types of severe weather today as an upper trough of low pressure looks to bring through a more optimized combination of ingredients for thunderstorms capable of producing all types of hazards. This upper trough will be larger and stronger than the waves impacting the region earlier in the week. This should help clear the region of a somewhat stationary boundary and the clutter of rain and clouds that is associated with it. With more dry time, instability will build. With the cap potentially weak enough for storms to develop in the afternoon and early evening, all types of severe weather could result as the parent system may possess enough low-level and deep-layer shear for organization through the storm.

TIMING:

Storms may develop across northern Missouri, including areas near Brunswick, Macon, and Moberly, during the afternoon and early evening, most likely by 2-4 pm. Storms developing in this environment could produce strong tornadoes. A more likely and widespread threat will come later in the evening along a cold front this evening, likely by 9p.m.-midnight. The cold front will create storms with more of a focus on damaging winds and weaker, spin-up tornadoes. Hail will also be a concern with both the early development in the north and area-wide along the line of storms.

IMPACTS:

All severe threats will be possible, including damaging winds, 1" or larger hail, and tornadoes. How likely these threats are will become clearer with time, but these are realistic possibilities given the overall setup. Given the wet start to the week, we'll also be concerned with flooding as a secondary or tertiary threat.

Make sure you have a way to receive timely alerts right to your location by downloading the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App. The app will also alert you to lightning within 15 miles of your location.