WEATHER ALERT DAY: Severe storms possible Thursday afternoon and again on Friday

UPDATE:

New information this morning is clarifying a storm threat that now appears greater in the eastern communities of mid-Missouri. Places like Mexico, Montgomery City, Hermann, Moberly, and Macon have a chance for severe storms, primarily capable of hail and damaging winds, with a tornado not completely out of the question.

Some areas most likely to see storms redevelop this afternoon missed out on the greatest rain overnight. Inches of rain have fallen in the west over the last 24 hours, with heavy rain last night causing flooding. Flood reports stretch from the lake area to Macon County. 3-Day rain totals are now up to nearly 4 inches in some spots in Pettis, Benton, Morgan, and Cooper counties.

Friday is an ABC17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day for the potential of severe storms that could bring wind, hail, and a few tornadoes to Mid-Missouri.

SETUP

The weather team is monitoring a threat for all types of severe weather on Friday as an upper trough of low pressure looks to bring through a more optimized combination of ingredients for thunderstorms capable of producing all types of hazards. This upper trough will be larger and stronger than the waves impacting the region earlier in the week. This should help clear the region of a somewhat stationary boundary and the clutter of rain and clouds that is associated with it. With more dry time, instability will build. With the cap potentially weak enough for storms to develop in the afternoon and early evening, all types of severe weather could result as the parent system may possess enough low-level and deep-layer shear for organization through the storm.

TIMING

Storms may develop across northern Missouri, including areas near Brunswick, Macon, and Moberly, during the late afternoon and early evening. Storms developing in this environment could produce strong tornadoes. A more likely and widespread threat will come later in the evening along a cold front on Friday night. The cold front will create storms with more of a focus on damaging winds and weaker, spin-up tornadoes. Hail will also be a concern with both the early development in the north and area-wide along the line of storms.

IMPACTS:

All severe threats will be possible, including damaging winds, 1" or larger hail, and tornadoes. How likely these threats are will become clearer with time, but these are realistic possibilities given the overall setup. Given the wet start to the week, we'll also be concerned with flooding as a secondary or tertiary threat.