WEATHER ALERT DAY: Wednesday severe threat reduced greatly but some storms still possible

The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day effective for a storm threat that may redevelop on Wednesday

SETUP:

After watching storm energy struggle to build north on Tuesday night (see the "What Changed" section below), we will continue reap the benefits of this shift in the data again on Wednesday.

We expect to see a very low severe threat on Wednesday, as instability is fairly modest through the day.

Our initial chance for strong storms may be with a threat that has all but disappeared this morning. A complex of showers and thunderstorms will have very limited instability to work with as they work up I-44. It's unlikely that storms become severe in Columbia and Jefferson City, but there is a slight risk that storms could become strong in our southeastern counties if the environment can support it. Our greatest risk here is damaging winds and hail.

The concern is that showers and mostly weak storms this morning will spread through the region, cluttering the environment and keeping storm energy at bay. The outflow from this activity will likely stir storm development to our southeast in the level 3 region on the severe risk map. This is where all severe hazards are possible, and more likely.

A very low chance will come later in the evening when a cold front drops through. If the atmosphere can recover behind morning activity, we could get an isolated strong storm or two, amid more scattered showers and weak storms.

HAZARDS & IMPACTS:

Our severe hazards are primarily damaging winds and hail.

TIMING:

Some storms will be possible in the south this morning, before our severe threat greatly wanes the rest of the day. More storms are possible in the evening, but the severe threat is very low.

WHAT COULD (or did) CHANGE:

DISCLAIMER: I am leaving this part of the blog mostly un-edited, so you can read into our thinking from Tuesday and see why we didn't see the severe storms we were concerned about. I will add updated details at the end.

Plenty could change between now and the end of this event, as Tuesday night/Wednesday morning's chance for storms is largely dependent on a fluid setup. One of the greatest variables remains timing of storms, while another is the amount of storm energy available to the system. Here's a look at two model runs that differ in both instances. The first brings storms through with lesser energy around 4-5 a.m., while the other brings storms to our doorstep closer to midnight with greater energy to work with.

On the other hand, latest high resolution guidance is reflecting changes from what we have seen this morning, in a swath of rain cooled air just to our west. This is from a complex of storms that rolled through that region Tuesday morning, and has left a depleted atmosphere in it's wake. This may limit how far north instability is able to return tonight. With a very complicated atmosphere in it's wake, this guidance is also bringing showers and storms to the region a bit sooner. In what may be the best case scenario, this all amounts to what may be an atmosphere that's too messy to bring much in the way of severe weather to our region tonight.

Wednesday afternoon is heavily dependent on how the overnight round plays out. A south track of storms due to little return of storm instability does not bode well for a severe risk on Wednesday. We may be fortunate enough to get squeezed from both severe risks. As this situation is very fluid, time will tell.

WEDNESDAY MORNING UPDATE: It has be come very clear that this latest scenario is exactly what played out. We didn't get the energy return on the map that we expected. Here's a look at roughly where that sits this morning.

The instability (or storm energy) has been limited south of I-44. Near this corridor will be about our only chance for a strong storm early Wednesday morning. We expect some modest lift of this northward, but not enough to create a widespread severe risk locally.

Similarly, we expect outflow from morning activity to clear us of much of this instability for the afternoon, shifting our threat largely away to the southeast.

Get the latest here in our ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day Blog, and on our ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App.