The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day for the potential of severe thunderstorms on Monday evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main concerns Monday evening into the overnight hours.
Monday afternoon Update:
Showers have developed and will continue over the next few hours, with a break before stronger storms arrive from the west tonight. The severe threat has decreased somewhat since this morning, but the main threat will be heavy rain and isolated damaging wind gusts after 8:00 tonight.
Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible early in the day on Monday as low pressure to our southwest sends a warm front north across the region. This first wave is not expected to bring severe weather, but temperatures and moisture will continue to increase through the day. Depending on how quickly this first wave lifts northeast, we could end up seeing a spike in instability or storm fuel later in the day.
Monday night, the cold front associated with this system will move in from the west, triggering another round of storms into a line ahead of the front. These storms will have the potential of bringing strong winds, hail, and a spin-up tornado or two.
The second round of showers and storms will develop ahead of the cold front, likely after 7 p.m., moving west to east across Mid-Missouri late Monday night. Areas south of I-70 will have a higher chance of seeing severe storms versus points north, but the entire area will see rain through sunrise Tuesday.
Areas along and south of Highway 50 will have a higher chance of seeing severe weather on Monday night with a slightly more favorable environment to sustain strong storms. Locations along and south of that corridor are in a slight or level 2 severe weather risk from the Storm Prediction Center, whereas points north are in a level 1 or marginal risk through Monday night.
The primary concern will be damaging winds up to 60 mph. Power outages and tree damage will be possible. Some storms may contain 1" hail, and the tornado threat is low, but there could be a spin-up tornado along the leading edge of the line of storms, especially near the Lake of the Ozarks and parts of Missouri to the southwest.
Rain amounts will range between 1-1.5" for all of Monday, with locally higher amounts possible in stronger storms.