Israel and Lebanon trade accusations of ceasefire violations. Here’s what we know about the uneasy truce

By Tamara Qiblawi, CNN

(CNN) — The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon appears to be largely holding, despite accusations of violations from both sides of the border.

US President Joe Biden said the deal that took effect early Wednesday morning – raising hopes of a lasting respite after a 13-month border conflict that spiraled into an all-out war in September – “is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.”

Since then, thousands of displaced Lebanese people have begun returning to their homes in the south, despite both Lebanon’s army and the Israeli military warning residents not to return home yet.

But a fragile and complicated process must still play out over the next 60 days, and it remains to be seen how permanent the pause will be in the long term.

Here’s what you need to know about the ceasefire and the weeks ahead.

What the deal entails

The deal stipulates a 60-day cessation of hostilities, which negotiators have described as the foundation of a lasting truce. During that time, Hezbollah fighters are expected to retreat some 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the Israel-Lebanon border, while Israeli ground forces withdraw from Lebanese territory.

UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the last all-out war between the two countries in 2006, has been the basis of the deal and the negotiations have mainly revolved around the treaty’s enforcement.

Under the agreement, Lebanon would implement a more rigorous supervision of Hezbollah’s movements south of the country’s Litani river, to prevent militants from regrouping there. United Nations peacekeeping troops, the Lebanese military and a multinational committee will be tasked with supervising the Iran-backed group’s movements.

Israel has vowed to resume military operations in case of a breach of the agreement.

Will the truce hold?

The ceasefire agreement heralds much-needed respite for Lebanese civilians, hundreds of whom have been killed in Israeli airstrikes, as well as for Israelis, millions of whom have taken to shelters amid Hezbollah’s daily barrage of rocket fire.

Thousands of Lebanese have begun to travel back to their homes in the south, despite warnings from the Israeli and Lebanese governments not to return immediately.

Residents in the southern Lebanese town of Qlayaa were seen cheering and throwing rice in the air – a gesture of celebration – as a Lebanese regiment arrived in the town on Wednesday evening. Under the truce, the Lebanese military will ramp up its presence in the south to help preserve the peace.

But there are questions about how long the truce may hold. Israel insists that it will take military action in response to any breach of the agreement. That could reignite the conflict, putting US-backed diplomatic efforts in jeopardy.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah has agreed to withdraw its forces north of the Litani river, some 40 kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon frontier at its furthest point. It made that concession in 2006 but violated it, building a vast underground infrastructure in an area where its members are part of the social fabric. Israel also breached the 2006 agreement by conducting near daily overflights in Lebanon.

On Thursday, however, both countries in the agreement accused the other of violating it.

In a statement, Israel’s military that said that it had thwarted “terrorist activity” in “a facility used by Hezbollah to store mid-range rockets in southern Lebanon.”

Meanwhile, the Lebanese army said that Israel had breached the terms of the ceasefire agreement “several times” since it went into effect, through “aerial infiltrations and the targeting of Lebanese territory with various weapons.”

The violations of the 2006 truce allowed Hezbollah to strengthen its forces tremendously, while Israel gathered intelligence on the militant group that would prove to be a game-changer in the 2024 war.

Still, the truce held for nearly two decades, the longest period of calm on that political fault-line since the 1960s.

How Hezbollah and Israel got here

Hezbollah first began to fire at Israeli-held territory a day after Hamas’ October 7 surprise attack in Israel, which killed around 1,200 people and took more than 250 hostages, triggering Israel’s ongoing devastating offensive in Gaza. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah repeatedly vowed to continue firing rockets at Israel until it ceased its assault in Gaza.

In an overnight meeting that began on September 16, Israel’s war cabinet expanded its stated war goals to include the return of residents displaced in the north of the country, as Hezbollah’s daily rocket fire on northern Israel has displaced more than 60,000 Israelis from their homes.

Hours later, Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, killing scores and wounding hundreds. That was followed by an attack on the group’s walkie-talkies the next day. On September 23, Israel launched an all-out offensive on Shia-majority areas across the country where Hezbollah wields significant influence, killing over 500 people in the deadliest day for Lebanon since its civil war that ended in 1990.

On September 27, Israel killed Hezbollah’s long-time leader Nasrallah in a massive attack in the southern suburbs of Beirut, upending the truce talks. A series of subsequent attacks decimated the group’s top brass, sending the organization even deeper underground.

Israeli attacks continued to pummel large parts of the country, mainly the Shia-majority south, east and the southern suburbs of Beirut, known as Dahiyeh, killing more than 3,700 Lebanese.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah continued to fire rockets at Israel at a steady rate, with some of the projectiles striking over 70 miles into the country. The vast majority of its missiles and drones were intercepted by Israel’s air defense systems, but some caused damage. Since October 2023, Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel have killed 47 Israeli civilians and 31 security forces in Israel. Another 46 Israeli soldiers have been killed in Lebanon.

Would this truce have an impact on the war in Gaza?

The signing of the Lebanon deal is unlikely to provide respite for Palestinians in Gaza, according to a regional analyst.

A Hezbollah-Israel agreement “means nothing for Gaza,” HA Hellyer, a senior associate fellow in security studies at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, told CNN before the deal was signed.

“I don’t think the conclusion of any deal with regards to Lebanon is likely to make one in Gaza more likely,” Hellyer said, adding that there haven’t been substantial ceasefire negotiations in Gaza for a long time.

More than 44,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since the war began over a year ago, according to the health ministry in the territory. Arab states, the United Nations and aid groups have repeatedly called for an end to Israel’s offensive, which has displaced almost all of Gaza’s population of more than 2 million people and flattened entire neighborhoods.

However, a senior US official last week told CNN that a deal with Hezbollah would “send a signal to Hamas” that Israel and its partners will do their utmost to secure an agreement that brings back hostages held in Gaza.

“If we have a Lebanon deal, we’re going to come down like a ton of bricks on Hamas to try to get a hostage deal,” the US official said before the agreement was signed, adding that Israel needs “to turn this military success… into a strategic success.”

The United States last week vetoed another UN Security Council resolution that called for an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire in Gaza, arguing that it did not sufficiently link that ceasefire to the immediate release of the hostages in the territory.

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CNN’s Jeremy Diamond contributed to this report.