CNN’s analysts answer key questions about the search for Nancy Guthrie

By Eric Levenson, CNN

(CNN) — The search for Nancy Guthrie is now in its fifth day, and investigators and the family are frantically searching for her whereabouts after her suspected abduction.

Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of “Today” anchor Savannah Guthrie, was reported missing Sunday around noon when she did not attend her regular church service. Investigators believe Nancy Guthrie was taken from her home against her will overnight, but there are no suspects yet, the sheriff’s department said Wednesday.

In response to reports of alleged ransom notes, Guthrie’s family released a heart-rending video on social media Wednesday night pleading with captors to provide proof their mother is alive. “We are ready to listen,” Savannah Guthrie said.

To better understand these latest developments, CNN senior correspondent Josh Campbell, a former FBI agent, and CNN chief law enforcement and intelligence analyst John Miller, a former deputy commissioner with the NYPD, answered our questions about the family’s video, the status of the investigation and law enforcement’s next steps.

What do you make of this plea from the Guthrie family?

Campbell: A personal plea by victim family members can be a powerful driver in seeking the safe resolution of a kidnapping. It can accomplish multiple things at once, including: opening a line of communication between the family and the abductor, humanizing the victim in a way that only loved ones can, and ideally eliciting a response from the abductor proving the victim is still alive.

In many ways, the Guthrie Instagram video is a reflection of the evolution in modern communication. Families have attempted to appeal to kidnappers for time immemorial via whatever medium was available. Releasing a video on social media, which is then amplified by the national news media, increases the likelihood that Nancy Guthrie’s abductor will see it.

Miller: It tells us that the authorities and the family believe that the notes contained enough information that appeared to be credible, knowledgeable about the abduction, that they are responding by trying to make what has been a one-way conversation – a ransom demand sent out to three different media organizations – into a two-way conversation … They are reaching out to implore the kidnappers to make contact with them.

Why did the Guthrie family release this video?

Campbell: The first goal of the family is to remind the abductor they are dealing with an innocent person who is loved, is a cherished member of the community, and has done nothing to deserve her current situation. A kidnapper may only see the victim as a means for financial gain, but hearing directly from the anguished Guthrie children provides the kidnapper with an outlook they may not have on the anguish they have caused.

The second purpose is to try to determine the kidnapper’s goal in order to help obtain a peaceful resolution. A kidnapping negotiation only works if both sides have something the other wants.

Miller: Well, they’re doing two important things. One is, a great deal of effort is put into, and it’s very natural, to humanize their mother. She’s not an object. She’s not a commodity. She’s not just a victim who is for sale with a price tag and a ransom demand. She is a loving person who is loved back by her family.

(The goal is) to develop that kind of empathy, between the family and whoever is holding her, hopefully to get them to share some of that empathy by adding this dimension to their mother’s story.

The second thing they’re doing is equally as important, which is you have a number of ransom notes that went to media outlets that are likely from an untraceable email address with a demand for money to a particular crypto account. That’s a one-way conversation.

So what they’re asking for is to turn that into a two-way conversation where … Can you reach out to us? Can we be in contact, and frankly to get a proof of life, which is send us a sign that A, you really have her and that B, she’s OK and we can continue these discussions.

All of those are important messages. She’s a real person. She loves us. We love her. We need to know that she’s OK, and we need to know that you’re real.

The family asked for proof she is alive, and specifically noted that “we live in a world where voices and images are easily manipulated.” What might that proof be? How does law enforcement authenticate it?

Campbell: In a negotiation, the leverage the kidnapper has is the control and fate of the victim. But that leverage must be proved before any good faith negotiation can take place. So-called “proof of life” can take various forms, including the release of verifiable photos or video of the victim, or a phone call to family members.

In the current digital age where images and sound can be so easily faked, a real-time, two-way interaction between the victim and the family provides the highest level of confidence that the person claiming to hold Nancy is legitimate.

Miller: Ultimately, what you’d like is to have a conversation with her on the phone, a two-way conversation where you say things and she says things back. That’s going to be a challenge to the kidnappers, because these things are theoretically traceable.

Where you go from there is, can you … ask questions to be put to her that only she would know? Who was your dog in the fourth grade? What entrée did you order at dinner, or did you have it? You know, at your sister’s house the night before you were taken? Those kinds of things that wouldn’t be out there in public to at least indicate they have her, but they still need something to show she’s alive.

Do we know if these purported ransom notes are actually legitimate? Could these notes be from someone not involved at all?

Campbell: Authorities are working to determine the authenticity of purported ransom notes received by various media outlets.

The reality of high-profile abductions is that investigators will typically receive a broad range of tips and claims that fall into three categories: legitimate information, tips submitted by members of the public with good intentions but not at all related to the case, and disinformation by sinister people simply trying to cause mischief or inflict confusion.

The sheriff said they are taking the notes seriously, but there will have to be some level of confidence in their authenticity before any funds are actually transmitted.

What are the next steps for the family and investigators?

Campbell: The hope for the family is that whomever is holding Nancy will see the video and respond with proof of life and an explanation of what they want.

A kidnapping is not only stressful for the victim and their family, it is also extremely stressful for the abductor. The goal for authorities is to relieve that stress for all parties by bringing the kidnapping to a safe resolution.

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