Groundhog Day Forecasts: Punxsutawney Phil Has Competition
By Karin Caifa
For some Americans, the first sign of spring could be an armadillo. For others, it could be a duck.
Most will look to a groundhog on February 2 – from Punxsutawney Phil in western Pennsylvania, to Staten Island Chuck in New York.
“The American folklore tradition of Groundhog Day has actually been around in the United States since 1887,” according to Aaron DeNu, president of Dupont Festival, a non-profit cultural organization that coordinates a Groundhog Day celebration in Washington D.C.’s Dupont Circle.
Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania’s local newspaper reported the first Groundhog Day celebration in 1886. The first official celebration was at Gobbler’s Knob, where observers gathered to see the weather-predicting groundhog according to Punxsutawney’s Groundhog Club. German settlers brought the tradition to the US to mark the February 2 Christian holiday of Candlemas, when churches bless candles for the remainder of winter.
German lore said if a hedgehog saw his shadow on February 2, six weeks of harsh winter were ahead. In the absence of hedgehogs in the U.S., the groundhog became the hibernating prognosticator. Other American celebrations soon followed.
Hundreds of U.S. cities and towns have their own Groundhog Day prognosticator. Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania has maintained a reputation as the nation’s groundhog of record for decades. Other groundhogs are taxidermized, like Washington D.C.’s Potomac Phil.
And many aren’t groundhogs at all, says Michael Venos, who has been compiling the Countdown to Groundhog Day database of forecasters and historic predictions since 2015.
“It’s not just groundhogs, it’s many other different types of animals, and sometimes not even animals.”
The list of eclectic Groundhog Day celebrants includes Bee Cave Bob, an armadillo who has forecasted in Texas since 2010. Poppy the Skunk in Lancaster, Ohio, has been making predictions since 2022. And Scramble the Duck has offered February prognostications in Connecticut since 2015.
Washington’s Potomac Phil is not as animated as his live animal counterparts, but he weighs in on more than the weather.
“Potomac Phil is special. We like to say he is temporarily taxidermized,” DeNu said. “We say in DC that we’re just looking for that magic elixir to reanimate Potomac Phil back to life.”
After Venos attends a local Groundhog Day ceremony or two, he will head back to his computer to update his database with 2026 forecasts.
Asked about accuracy and patterns in the numbers he compiles, Venos said, “I think it’s more about the fun aspect of the holiday than the exact science. I think if you’re looking for accuracy, you’re maybe a little better off with meteorologists.”
The-CNN-Wire
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