Storm set to hit central US on Election Day as key midterm races hang in balance

By Meteorologist Tyler Ory, CNN

(CNN) — A storm headed for the central United States on Election Day could affect voter turnout in key races across the region.

The beginnings of our storm are just off the West Coast and will cross into the US Saturday night. It will funnel in abundant moisture from the tropical Pacific, setting up a serious flooding threat in the Southwest this weekend before it brings soggy weather to the central states for Election Day.

Heavy rain is expected to fall over the Four Corners states of Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado on Sunday into Monday, and could bring serious flash flooding, before the system marches into the central US by Election Day.

Soggy weather is likely for a widespread area on Tuesday, stretching from the Great Plains and Upper Midwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley and western Gulf Coast. Stormy conditions are possible for keys races in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan and Texas.

The threat of flooding rain on Tuesday is currently low, but voters traveling to the polls could encounter ponding on roads.

Thunderstorms are expected on the storm’s southern side, a few of which could intensify and turn severe from eastern Texas into Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee.

Blustery conditions are also likely throughout a large portion of the impacted states, especially in the Plains. Kansas could see wind gusts between 30 to 40 mph, up to 50 mph in Nebraska.

Weather conditions could factor in to voter turnout in those states and for others in the central US who aren’t among the more than 49 million people who have already cast ballots through early voting.

Rainfall and other active weather tend to suppress voter turnout while sunshine has the opposite effect, multiple studies have found.

Dry weather will likely sandwich the storm along much of the East Coast and in the West. The only exception is coastal areas of the Southeast and northern California where nuisance showers can’t be completely ruled out yet.

Across the country though, there will be no need to bundle up to go vote. High temperatures in most of the nation’s eastern half are forecast to be 5 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Only portions of the the Southwest will have temperatures tilting a bit cooler than average.

The breakdown below shows the forecast for some of the key states in the midterms. Keep in mind these forecasts will likely change as confidence grows in the storm’s path over this weekend.

Key race forecast

• Georgia: Likely dry with highs in the 70s and 80s.
• Iowa: Rain is likely, with heaviest totals falling over the eastern portion of the state from Monday evening into Tuesday midday. Highs will reach the 60s, but could lean cooler in the northwest corner.
• Kansas: Central and eastern parts of the state are most likely to see rainfall along with elevated winds. Highs will range from the 50s and 60s, with widespread wind gusts between 20 to 30 mph.
• Maine: Scattered showers are possible across the interior portions of the state, but the timing is still up in the air. Highs will reach the 50s and 60s.
• Michigan: Rain will fall throughout the state for at least part of the day, with prolonged showers likely further north. Highs will range from the 50s and 60s in the Upper Peninsula to the low 70s in Lower Michigan.
• New Hampshire: A stray shower or two is possible in northern portions of the state, but more significant rain chances are low right now. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s.
• North Carolina: Likely dry with highs in the 70s.
• Ohio: Mostly dry with highs in the 60s and 70s.
• Texas: Eastern and coastal Texas will likely see rain. A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind are also possible. High will range from the 80s near the coast to the 60s in the state’s panhandle and west Texas.

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CNN Meteorologist Chris Dolce contributed to this story.