Weather Alert Day: Flooding and severe storms possible throughout Father’s Day
An ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day has been issued for Sunday, Father's Day, for multiple chances of impactful weather. This will go into effect at 5:00 A.M. Sunday, as excessive rainfall and potentially damaging winds will be in the forecast thanks to a decaying MCS from the west. This Weather Alert Day will continue until 10:00 P.M. Sunday, as a secondary round of stronger storms is expected during the afternoon and evening hours, bringing the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and brief tornadoes, all while flooding will still be a concern.
SETUP:
A deepening low-pressure system from the west will be moving into Central Missouri over the next 24 hours. This will already be causing impactful weather for areas like Kansas today, as much of the area is currently under an enhanced risk for strong to severe storms. Overnight, the remnant MCS from this activity will move into Mid-Missouri as the low-pressure system and its associated warm front continue to push east.
As this warm front lifts north into Missouri over the next 24 hours, along with it will come more unstable air. The amount of coverage in storms that this warm front brings during the morning hours will determine where the best instability is for the afternoon round of storms, but as of right now, the environment that is trending to be the most unaffected by morning convection is along and south of I-70. This would mean that storms would have the best chance of becoming severe in this area.
TIMING:
The morning MCS is set to enter areas to the west and north of Columbia by 5-7 A.M. This will continue to become more widespread across Central Missouri throughout the rest of the morning hours before briefly drying up near the lunch hour. By 3-5 P.M., initiation of the second round of storms forming off the trailing cold front and leftover boundaries from previous storms can be expected, mainly positioned south of I-70 due to the persistence of the morning convection.
IMPACTS:
Due to the nature of these systems, and due to the fact that Missouri has already received well above-average rainfall totals for June, flooding will be the most widespread concern. High rainfall rates will be associated with any of the stronger storms that will be present, and by the end of the day, 1-3" of total rainfall can be expected across all of Mid-Missouri.
For the morning round of storms, the other threat besides flooding will mainly be damaging winds with any bowing segments that are present. During the afternoon hours, in areas where the atmosphere can recover and build instability, all threats will be possible. This means that damaging winds up to 60 mph, hail stones up to 1", and a few tornadoes could be a threat, all while flooding will still be a concern. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted most of Mid-Missouri in a slight or 2/5 risk because of these hazards, but expect this to be shifted around as details of the initial morning round become clearer.
With this actively changing forecast, it is important that you stay up to date and aware of the weather in your area. One of the ways you can do so is by downloading the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App, where you can receive alerts of storms in your area and updates from the team as we approach this system.
