WEATHER ALERT DAY: Dangerous heat sets up storm chances later in the week

Tuesday through Thursday are ABC17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Days as the ABC17 Stormtrack Weather Team is monitoring dangerous heat that may ultimately give way to severe thunderstorm chances this week.

SETUP:

At the top of the atmosphere, ridging (or high pressure) will allow heat and humidity to build while also introducing chances of storms nearly every day. We're unfortunately in the right spot to get a little bit of everything this week. The hottest days look to be Tuesday and Wednesday, while the greatest storm chances show up on Thursday. Some overlap of dangerous heat indexes and severe storm chances may come on Wednesday.

TIMING:

Some morning thunderstorms will pass on Tuesday morning, but severe weather is not expected. Storms should be weakening as they arrive in the early morning hours.

Localized flash flooding may become an issue briefly, as a Flood Watch was extended through 7:00 a.m. for much of Mid-Missouri as isolated pockets of 1-3" rain are possible.

From there, Tuesday is mostly dry and sunny. This will allow temperatures to reach near 90° on Tuesday afternoon. This and a dew point in the mid-70s will give us heat indexes in the 100°-103° range. We expect the same heat on Wednesday, but as a trough of low pressure nears, storms may develop in an area of high instability across NW Missouri. If this happens, some storms may impacts the northwestern half of our region.

Then, on Thursday, another area of low pressure approaches. This time, bringing a cold front and greater coverage of storms sometime late in the day, and into the evening. This will likely bring another widespread chance for storms.

IMPACTS:

Dangerous heat will be the main impact on Tuesday and Wednesday, but if storms develop in mid-Missouri on Wednesday, a few could present a hail and damaging wind threat.

Our main concern for Thursday will be the increased chance of severe storms. Threats may include hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, but confidence is low at this time.