Weather Alert Day: Flood threat remains early Tuesday as severe threat concludes

TUESDAY UPDATE

The severe thunderstorm threat has ended across mid-Missouri, but a threat for flooding continues this morning. A concern for flash flooding continues until about 7 a.m., but an areal flood watch remains until 1 p.m. Nearly 4 inches of rain have fallen in counties covered by an areal flood advisory until 3:30 p.m.

An ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day continues through early Tuesday morning as the first wave of storms exits to the east through the dinner hour. Most of Mid-Missouri has picked up anywhere from 2-3"+ rain with an additional 1-3"+ possible with the overnight round, making flooding our main concern into Tuesday morning. A Flood Watch is in effect through Tuesday afternoon.

SETUP

A deeper dip in the jet stream drives higher storm chances by bringing a deeper trough and stronger wind support on Monday and Tuesday. At the surface, and at the lower levels of the atmosphere, an area of low pressure will strengthen to our west, and draw warmth and moisture in from the Gulf through Tuesday.

The warm and muggy pattern remains Monday, ahead of a larger dip in the upper-level flow, which will push the more active pattern and greater support for strong storms into mid-Missouri.

TIMING

Monday began with widespread storms that were generally not severe, except for a storm that produced 67 mph winds at Columbia Regional Airport, and left some damage in Columbia, prompting a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Callaway County.

Warmth and storm energy are expected to lift north again through the evening, restoring fuel for late-night storms. In fact, as this outflow boundary interacts with more instability lifting north, we may see an intensification of ongoing storms during the afternoon and early evening. The focus for Monday's greatest severe chance centers on the approaching cold front and upper-level wind shear, which are both expected late in the night, potentially overnight. It's still uncertain exactly how Monday unfolds, but given the ingredients expected, Monday night looks to be the greatest threat for severe storms out of this active pattern.

To a lesser extent, there is some potential for storms to redevelop locally on Tuesday, but this will greatly depend on the speed of the front, which may entirely clear the region of a severe threat.

IMPACTS

An additional 1-3" of rain will be possible with the overnight round of storms, continuing the flash flooding risk into the morning.

The best chance for strong storms in our region will be late Monday night into Tuesday morning, when hail, wind, and tornadoes will be possible. Severe storms may develop again on Tuesday afternoon before pushing east, but the threat is low.