Weather Alert Day: Strong system to bring severe threat Sunday night and again on Monday

The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day for Sunday night through Monday, as severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday night, and again on Monday from midday through the afternoon.

SETUP:

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY

Strong low pressure across the Plains will send a warm front to our north between Sunday night and Monday, opening up the area to warm, moist air from the Gulf with dew points rising into the 60s. Severe storms are possible along and south of the warm front that lifts into the region late Sunday night into Monday morning. Many of the finer details are uncertain, and may clear up in the next 24 hours, so check in for updates over the weekend.

MONDAY

At the same time, a strong jet stream will increase winds aloft from the west, providing plenty of speed and directional wind shear. This strong upper-level system will reflect at the surface as a strengthening surface low moving in from the southwest across the plains and towards the Mississippi River Valley

We'll have plenty of lift from the strong low pressure aloft as it centers across the northern Plains. Additionally, a cold front will be dipping in from the northern plains, poised to overtake an already existing dryline. At least one or both of these surface boundaries are likely to initiate thunderstorms.

TIMING

Instability will be maximized over our area early in the day, with higher values if clouds and rain from a Sunday night/Monday morning round can clear quickly. This means if severe weather materializes, this will likely be a daytime event, rather than an overnight watch party. There are some questions around the ability to destabilize on Monday. If rain and clouds from the Sunday night/Monday morning round dwell too long, the rain and storms along the cold front may struggle to develop much intensity. Instability wanes from west to east as a cold front sweeps through the area by evening, decreasing chances of storms sometime near to just after dinner time on Monday.

IMPACTS

Severe impacts may range from wind to hail and tornadoes, but by the time storms arrive in mid-Missouri, we expect wind to be the primary concern and most likely impact late Sunday night.

The Storm Prediction Center has Mid-Missouri in a level 3/5 risk for severe storms on Monday, with the area likely to shift over the coming days. All hazards are possible if severe weather occurs on Monday.

Make sure to stay with the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team over the weekend as we pinpoint the exact timing and hazards. We'll be sure to update this blog frequently, so set your ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather app to receive alerts from the team as we forecast this next severe weather event.