Tracking a chance for storms ahead of a dry and warm weekend

TODAY: Monday is mostly dry and partly cloudy. After some showers this morning near Rolla, the radar will dry up for most of the morning. Afternoon heating may bring pop-up thunderstorms in an isolated manner this afternoon, for those in the southeast. Storms are not expected to become severe, but each storm could produce locally heavy rainfall, if they can develop in mid-Missouri. The bulk of the afternoon rain chances will miss us to the southeast. Highs are expected in the mid-80s, feeling like upper 80s.

TONIGHT: Temperatures stay warm overnight, in the upper 60s with light south winds and clearing skies.

EXTENDED: Early morning rain chances are low depending on the behavior of overnight thunderstorms to our west. It's not out of the question that a weakening complex of storms brings us showers and or cloud cover. However, right now, it's likely a dry start to the day for most. Tuesday is a bit of a question mark. We know we'll be warm, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. After a shower chance in the morning, we appear mostly dry and toasty. We'll have plenty of warmth and moisture to build abundant storm energy in the atmosphere. With that said, we may not be able to build storms locally thanks to a cap in place. Storms to our west on Tuesday afternoon, may be able to move this way and make use of this energy late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. This scenario would bring a chance for severe storms locally, but there is uncertainty on whether this will be the case or not. We'll keep a chance for showers and storms in the forecast on Wednesday behind storm chances. This will likely keep highs cooler on Wednesday, in the low 80s. A cold front will pass sometime on Wednesday bringing another chance for showers and storms, and leaving us with drier weather Thursday through the weekend. High temperatures don't reflect a cool down, though, with highs forecast in the 80s to 90s through this period.