Severe Weather Special: Wet and warm spring with low river flooding risk
We're coming off of a snowier and slightly cooler than normal winter that started with about 3" of snow in December for a total of 18.2" by the end of February. Despite the above average snowfall, our total liquid precipitation came in about 1.5" below normal, allowing current drought conditions to hold as we head into spring.
Typically, we average around 54 degrees for spring, but you'll remember last spring was pretty mild with a near 60 degree average temperature. Last spring was wetter than average by more than an inch, with a very active severe weather season.
Nationwide, 2024 was the most active year for tornadoes since 2011, a year marked by devastating tornadoes in April and May, including the Good Friday tornado that hit St. Louis and the EF-5 that destroyed parts of Joplin. Just over 1,900 tornadoes were recorded, the most since 2,240 were confirmed in 2011.
In 2024, 208 tornado warnings were issued in Missouri, with 105 confirmed tornadoes. Statewide, we average 27 tornadoes between March and May. We're heading into a neutral global pattern this spring, which can give us variable conditions. In the last 10 neutral years, half of those have produced near or above average tornado reports.
As we transition from La Nina to ENSO neutral, the global sea surface temperature will get closer to average in the central and eastern Pacific. This usually points to an average season in Mid-Missouri with the polar jet stream just to our north, and the subtropical jet to our south across the Southeast. This opens up our area to variability during spring.
The Climate Prediction Center is already picking up on signals of a slightly wetter than average spring in Missouri, and we're on our way with a wet start to March. As for temperatures, CPC has equal chances of above or below average for the region. However, spring has been warmer than normal in Columbia since 2015.
The average spring temperature has increased 3.5 degrees since 1970 in Columbia. We've also seen an increase of 15 more warmer than normal days between March and May.
Through May, we won't see much change in current drought conditions, but widespread drought looks to hold across the Missouri Basin to our north. Areas of extreme drought across Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming could limit flooding upstream from reaching our part of the Missouri River.
Snow pack is looking very sparse as we get into Mid-March, and parts of the Basin have only seen 30-40% of normal precipitation over the last month. Overall flooding risk is below normal, but there could be short term rises to minor flood stage, especially on local tributaries due to routine spring storms. All of these factors will limit higher flood risk on the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers in the region.
The ABC 17 Stormtrack spring forecast calls for a slightly warmer than normal spring with a typical number of severe weather outbreaks that lead to a slightly wetter than normal season. A 1-2 degree and 1" departure from normal are expected, respectively.
Make sure you have the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather app to receive alerts when watches and warnings are issued, and get notified about lightning near your location. You can watch the latest ABC 17 Stormtrack weather forecasts, Climate Matters, Stormtrack Insiders, and live newscasts on our CTV apps like Roku, Amazon Fire, and Apple+.
