WEATHER ALERT DAY: Damaging winds and tornadoes possible this evening

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An ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day is in effect Friday, March 14th. We are tracking a system that is poised to threaten significant damaging winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes from late afternoon through early evening. A level 4 out of 5 severe risk is in place for most of mid-Missouri.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for all of Mid-Missouri until 11:00 p.m.

Ahead of the severe risk, strong winds will ramp up from the south, gusting between 50-55 mph at times, potentially causing power outages and elevate the fire danger. A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of Mid-Missouri and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Lake area and western Missouri through late Friday night.

SETUP:

A deep area of low pressure, rivaling that of our last ABC17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day we issued. That one was for wind, whereas this go-around will bring wind and a chance for severe storms.

This area of low pressure will do its best to foster an environment for severe storms by pulling moisture northward from the gulf, and blowing in plenty of warmth under sunny skies. The latter will bolster pockets of modest instability in mid-Missouri and places eastward by the peak heating hours of the day. This system will be incredibly strong, and able to make good use of even modest instability and moisture in our environment.

TIMING:

The greatest environment for these storms looks to peak during the late afternoon and early evening. This system's timing places that environment in central to eastern mid-Missouri. Our latest update shifts the arrival of storms back about one hour, increasing the amount of instability in mid-Missouri. This shifts the window for strongest storms further west.

HAZARDS:

This line of storms will have abundant mechanical support in the atmosphere to drive a wind threat. The low level jet, which is a stream of lower atmosphere wind just above the surface, will be racing along from the south to the north at a pace of 50-60+kts (58-70mph). This will support a severe (58mph) to a possible but isolated significant severe (75-85mph) wind threat.

Squall line events like these often produce what we would consider weak spin-up tornadoes. This is where rotation develops in the line of storms because of wind speed differences through the line. With great organization in the atmosphere, aloft and near the surface, and good low level energy trending upward in mid-Missouri, we are increasing the risk for tornadoes in our forecast. This update now includes potential for a strong tornado in mid-Missouri, especially east of HWY 63. The SPC outlook highlights central to eastern mid-Missouri as having potential for strong tornadoes at a rating of EF-2 or higher.

Some storms may also produce a risk for large hail, with up to two inch hail a possibility with the strongest storms.

IMPACTS:

Don't get caught off guard! With Friday afternoon being a warm start to the weekend, our concern is that a significant amount of the community may be out enjoying a beautiful, albeit windy evening when storms roll in. Storms will move at nearly 70 mph, so they will pop up in your western sky quickly, and they will move through quickly. It will be best to hunker down and wait these storms out, rather than try to outrun them. Pay close attention to the weather Friday afternoon and evening, and share this with those especially those with outdoor plans.

The severe wind threat is our greatest concern, which would be dangerous for those stuck outside. High end wind speeds of 70-80 mph will be effectively the same as a weak tornado. Damage to structures is expected, especially those that are less sturdy like barns, sheds, or other outbuildings. Power outages are also likely with damage expected to power infrastructure in the strongest winds.

In the event of a severe thunderstorm, take shelter in a sturdy building away from windows. In the event of a tornado warning, get to the lowest level of a sturdy building (a basement if possible), and to the innermost room, away from exterior walls.

Stay informed with the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather app to get alerts right to your location. You can stream ABC 17 News on these platforms to see live newscasts, severe weather coverage, and weather content from the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team.