How AP uses expected vote instead of ‘precincts reporting’ when determining a winner

Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — It’s usually possible to determine who won an election before the vote counting is 100% complete. But doing so requires determining how many ballots still need to be tabulated at any point in the vote count, and that’s not as straightforward or clear-cut as it might seem. In fact, it’s only gotten more complicated as elections have evolved. For years, the most common way news organizations kept track of the progress in the vote count on election night was to calculate the percentage of precincts that had reported their results. But over the years, that method has become a less and less reliable measurement that doesn’t reflect the realities of modern elections.