EVENING UPDATE: Our severe weather threat will wane for the next few hours for much of Mid-Missouri with the front continuing to track to our southeast. We will keep a close eye on a complex of storms that is expected to move into southern Missouri overnight, posing a heavy rain and wind threat for areas south of I-44. The Lake area, Pulaski, and Phelps counties could be clipped by this after midnight.
The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day with the threat of severe storms returning to Mid-Missouri. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with this latest round of strong storms that will push into the viewing area.
A slow-moving cold front to our north moves into the area today, setting up along the I-70 corridor by late afternoon. An upper-level impulse will ripple down the boundary, firing up a round of storms for the latter half of Monday. Ahead of that disturbance entering the picture, the atmosphere over Mid-Missouri will quickly destabilize thanks to some sunshine and plenty of moisture setting up across the region. One thing we have on our side is the lack of low-level wind shear, meaning the tornado threat will be lower with this event. Wind shear looks more favorable across southern Missouri, largely along and south of I-44.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop likely after 3:00 or 4:00 PM and then continue to fill in to the south and east along and south of the front into Monday night. Storms continue overnight, and eventually, diminish as the front moves to our south tomorrow morning.
Large hail appears to be the primary threat with any severe weather late Monday afternoon. Given a large amount of instability, hail could get up to 2" in diameter or larger in a few of the storms. As things progress into the evening and overnight hours, damaging wind will become the leading threat. Our tornado threat is pretty low, but boundary interactions with any individual storm can be notoriously tricky. While soils are still ahead of normal, these few rounds of showers and storms are not expected to lead to any flooding problems.
A strong capping inversion is expected to be present this afternoon. A slightly warmer layer of air will make it tougher for storms to form. With that in place, storms will be more isolated in coverage. But anything that gets through it will be able to tap into a ripe atmosphere. Some better lift is expected to show up later tonight, giving a better chance to overcome that "cap".
WHAT TO DO
As always, now is the time to review your severe weather plan. Know where you might need to go, wherever the day might take you while severe weather is possible. Download the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App for free to keep an eye on the radar, and to receive a head's up when lightning enters your area.