Defining the “Indian summer” & stats for November warm spells
Defining "Indian summer"
The phrase "Indian summer" is likely a bit dated. Especially since we know Columbus didn't land in India in 1492.
The expression is defined in the weather community as a period of abnormally warm weather in Autumn or early winter. It's most commonly used following an areas first killing frost.
Temperatures across mid-Missouri were well into the 20s earlier today, and widespread frost packed many surfaces too. It was the first widespread frost/freeze we've seen this season.
The timing of this impending warm up, rather apt.
A monthly weather journal in 1902 investigated the phrases first uses, which date back to the mid-1850s. Although, some sporadic use can be found all the way back in the late-1700s.
November warm spells are expected
While this is usually the time of year we begin to feel winter cold, squeezing out warm weather like we're expecting isn't very rare. In fact, seeing at least one 70º degree day in November should happen on most years.
Where things become a little more murky, are extended periods of warmth. Percentages quickly drop for longer-duration warm spells... To get a week of 70+ in November typically only happens every other year or so. By 10+ days, you're under 25 percent.
The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has been teasing a big pattern change next week. That's likely where our focus will lie for the next several days, with quiet weather expected the rest of this week, through the weekend.
Stay tuned for those updates!
-Luke
