Battle of the seasons in Mid-Missouri

Following one of the coldest starts to a year ever recorded, things have been thawing out across Mid-Missouri. Arctic air earlier in the month kept the average temperature near 22 degrees, a sign of just how cold the air was that kept spilling into Mid-Missouri. Since then temperatures have thawed out, with the average hovering near 32 degrees. The spring tease is welcomed across Mid-Missouri, as the cold air kept many locked inside for days, potentially putting themselves at risk of catching illness around sick people.

Just this past weekend, temperatures in Mid-Missouri soared into the lower 70s, a 60 degree jump of single digit temperatures just a few days earlier. Although cold fronts are still tracking through Mid-Missouri, cold air is largely absent behind the frontal boundaries. The reason is due to their origination, as the cold fronts are largely tracking in from the Pacific and not Canada. Much like this past weekend, Mid-Missouri will see another frontal boundary track through this weekend. While rain will be in the forecast, it will only amount to a quarter of an inch in many spots. Cooler air will filter in on the back side of the front, but will only knock our temperatures down to seasonal levels before another warming trend begins to end the month of January.

So where is winter? Arctic air that gripped the nation through most of January has retreated, but winter is far from over. Signs are pointing to a return of the Arctic air just in time for February. Atmospheric weather models point to a ridge building into the eastern Pacific. Just how strong this ridge becomes will determine the strength of the Arctic air that will spill into the United States. The ridge will also determine how long and how far south the cold air will make it.

Currently temperatures across the Arctic Circle and parts of Russia are pushing 20 to 50 degrees below zero. It’s this cold air that will spill back into Mid-Missouri and bring a return to bitter cold. The Climate Prediction Center notes that most of the cold will likely spill into the central portion of the country, with Mid-Missouri seeing a decent chance of below-seasonal temperatures. For perspective, the average temperature during the first week of February is near 40 degrees.

Don’t put away those jackets, gloves, and winter gear yet, as winter is far from over. The thaw was just that a brief break from the Arctic air, before another round arrives for the second half of winter. While it’s entirely too early to tell if we’ll see snow, plenty of moisture should be available, so we’ll still see several decent chances of winter weather.

Stay with ABC 17 Stormtrack as another round of Arctic weather is set to unfold and follow us on Twitter @ABC17Stormtrack.