Outlook through Dec 15th includes arctic air and snow

When we think of December, cold, snowy weather comes to mind but this year, it’s starting off mild and dry. On average, we start the month with nights in the upper 20s and days in the upper 40s, with average highs dropping into the upper 30s by the 31st. Nights usually drop into the 20s and on average we pick up 4.4 inches of snow.

Although it’s not feeling like the start of December, the weather pattern will change to a cold pattern on the 4th as a cold front moves through, dropping temperatures back to where they should be this time of year. As the upper level winds shift to north, the cold air will continue to drop into Missouri with a shot of arctic air by the weekend of the 9th. This pattern looks like it will continue through December 15th before the upper level winds shift, coming in more from the west.

The northwesterly flow aloft will have little moisture to carry in with it and we are likely to stay in a dry weather pattern through the 15th. It’s possible that we could see a few snowflakes during this time period as cold fronts move through but without substantial moisture return from the south, precipitation will be light, if any.

However, as the upper winds shift around mid-month, this will allow moisture to work it’s way back in from the Pacific and possibly the Gulf of Mexico if a strong enough surface low develops. Forecast models indicate this will happen sometime around the 15th and with the cold air still lingering, it’s possible we’ll see snow around this time period.

The Stormtrack Weather Team will monitor new data coming in over the next couple weeks and will let you know of any snow chances and changes to the weather pattern. Watch ABC17 News and check back here for the latest.